Forecast models from agencies including the Turkish Meteorological Service and international ensembles such as ECMWF and GFS show Istanbul under abundant sunshine with light westerly winds on June 14, supporting a daily maximum near 26 °C. This consensus aligns with climatological June averages of 25–27 °C and recent model runs indicating minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Traders have priced the 26 °C outcome above 90 percent because observed conditions and short-range guidance exhibit low uncertainty, with only modest variability across ensemble members. A realistic challenge would require rapid afternoon convective development or an unforecasted shift in steering flow that caps temperatures one degree lower, though current observational data and model agreement make such deviations unlikely before evening.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 14?
26°C 93%
27°C 6.3%
25°C <1%
29°C <1%
$37,002 Vol.
$37,002 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
93%
27°C
6%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 93%
27°C 6.3%
25°C <1%
29°C <1%
$37,002 Vol.
$37,002 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
93%
27°C
6%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 12, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the Turkish Meteorological Service and international ensembles such as ECMWF and GFS show Istanbul under abundant sunshine with light westerly winds on June 14, supporting a daily maximum near 26 °C. This consensus aligns with climatological June averages of 25–27 °C and recent model runs indicating minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Traders have priced the 26 °C outcome above 90 percent because observed conditions and short-range guidance exhibit low uncertainty, with only modest variability across ensemble members. A realistic challenge would require rapid afternoon convective development or an unforecasted shift in steering flow that caps temperatures one degree lower, though current observational data and model agreement make such deviations unlikely before evening.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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