National Weather Service ensemble forecasts currently converge on a daily maximum of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport, the official verification site, under clear skies that promote strong solar insolation and surface heating. Southerly flow is advecting a warmer air mass northward beneath high pressure, while subtle differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of peak insolation among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions create the narrow spread separating the leading 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F outcomes. This model consensus, typical for springtime verification uncertainty, explains why trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered around the mid-to-upper 80s with no single bin exceeding 42 percent.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in NYC on May 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 17?
86-87°F 44%
88-89°F 31%
84-85°F 22%
90-91°F 6.7%
$63,142 Vol.
$63,142 Vol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
44%
88-89°F
31%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 44%
88-89°F 31%
84-85°F 22%
90-91°F 6.7%
$63,142 Vol.
$63,142 Vol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
$9,591 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$7,065 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$7,562 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$6,818 Vol.
22%
86-87°F
$6,901 Vol.
44%
88-89°F
$4,235 Vol.
31%
90-91°F
$6,618 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$4,937 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$3,907 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$3,739 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$3,141 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service ensemble forecasts currently converge on a daily maximum of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport, the official verification site, under clear skies that promote strong solar insolation and surface heating. Southerly flow is advecting a warmer air mass northward beneath high pressure, while subtle differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of peak insolation among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions create the narrow spread separating the leading 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F outcomes. This model consensus, typical for springtime verification uncertainty, explains why trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered around the mid-to-upper 80s with no single bin exceeding 42 percent.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$63,142Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service ensemble forecasts currently converge on a daily maximum of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport, the official verification site, under clear skies that promote strong solar insolation and surface heating. Southerly flow is advecting a warmer air mass northward beneath high pressure, while subtle differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of peak insolation among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions create the narrow spread separating the leading 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F outcomes. This model consensus, typical for springtime verification uncertainty, explains why trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered around the mid-to-upper 80s with no single bin exceeding 42 percent.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,142Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETNational Weather Service ensemble forecasts currently converge on a daily maximum of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport, the official verification site, under clear skies that promote strong solar insolation and surface heating. Southerly flow is advecting a warmer air mass northward beneath high pressure, while subtle differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of peak insolation among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions create the narrow spread separating the leading 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F outcomes. This model consensus, typical for springtime verification uncertainty, explains why trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered around the mid-to-upper 80s with no single bin exceeding 42 percent.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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