Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 14?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 14?
23°C or below 86%
24°C 11%
25°C 4.0%
26°C 3.1%
BARU
BARU
May 14, 2026
23°C or below
86%
24°C
11%
25°C
4%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
23°C or below 86%
24°C 11%
25°C 4.0%
26°C 3.1%
BARU
BARU
May 14, 2026
23°C or below
$833 Vol.
86%
24°C
$433 Vol.
11%
25°C
$595 Vol.
4%
26°C
$288 Vol.
3%
27°C
$581 Vol.
1%
28°C
$668 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$775 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$530 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,038 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$580 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Volume
$7,432Tanggal Berakhir
May 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,432Tanggal Berakhir
May 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or below in Qingdao on May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs around 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly winds. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity from recent light rain systems are suppressing temperatures, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 20–23°C highs at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, the market's resolution source. Over the past 48 hours, observed highs stayed below 23°C, reinforcing this positioning, though model runs indicate a small risk of afternoon clearing that could nudge toward 24°C (15% odds). Updated CMA bulletins and hourly airport data expected throughout the day will refine these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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