Ensemble forecast uncertainty between ECMWF and GFS models is the primary driver behind the current market-implied odds, with 10°C holding the lead at 38.5% due to moderate overnight radiative cooling expected under partial cloud cover and light winds. Recent Météo-France guidance highlights an unstable frontal pattern through May 17, featuring scattered showers and daytime highs near 19°C that could limit cooling to 9–11°C ranges or allow brief dips lower if skies clear after sunset at Paris-Le Bourget. Historical May minima average 9–10°C, providing climatological context for why these buckets dominate over extremes below 8°C, while traders watch 00Z and 12Z model runs for shifts in steering patterns or moisture that could tip probabilities toward 11°C or higher.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Paris on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 17?
10°C 45%
9°C 19%
11°C 18%
12°C or higher 9%
BARU
BARU
May 17, 2026
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
4%
9°C
19%
10°C
39%
11°C
27%
12°C or higher
9%
10°C 45%
9°C 19%
11°C 18%
12°C or higher 9%
BARU
BARU
May 17, 2026
2°C or below
$66 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$217 Vol.
1%
5°C
$340 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$347 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$167 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$87 Vol.
4%
9°C
$122 Vol.
19%
10°C
$66 Vol.
39%
11°C
$80 Vol.
27%
12°C or higher
$159 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecast uncertainty between ECMWF and GFS models is the primary driver behind the current market-implied odds, with 10°C holding the lead at 38.5% due to moderate overnight radiative cooling expected under partial cloud cover and light winds. Recent Météo-France guidance highlights an unstable frontal pattern through May 17, featuring scattered showers and daytime highs near 19°C that could limit cooling to 9–11°C ranges or allow brief dips lower if skies clear after sunset at Paris-Le Bourget. Historical May minima average 9–10°C, providing climatological context for why these buckets dominate over extremes below 8°C, while traders watch 00Z and 12Z model runs for shifts in steering patterns or moisture that could tip probabilities toward 11°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,715Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecast uncertainty between ECMWF and GFS models is the primary driver behind the current market-implied odds, with 10°C holding the lead at 38.5% due to moderate overnight radiative cooling expected under partial cloud cover and light winds. Recent Météo-France guidance highlights an unstable frontal pattern through May 17, featuring scattered showers and daytime highs near 19°C that could limit cooling to 9–11°C ranges or allow brief dips lower if skies clear after sunset at Paris-Le Bourget. Historical May minima average 9–10°C, providing climatological context for why these buckets dominate over extremes below 8°C, while traders watch 00Z and 12Z model runs for shifts in steering patterns or moisture that could tip probabilities toward 11°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,715Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETEnsemble forecast uncertainty between ECMWF and GFS models is the primary driver behind the current market-implied odds, with 10°C holding the lead at 38.5% due to moderate overnight radiative cooling expected under partial cloud cover and light winds. Recent Météo-France guidance highlights an unstable frontal pattern through May 17, featuring scattered showers and daytime highs near 19°C that could limit cooling to 9–11°C ranges or allow brief dips lower if skies clear after sunset at Paris-Le Bourget. Historical May minima average 9–10°C, providing climatological context for why these buckets dominate over extremes below 8°C, while traders watch 00Z and 12Z model runs for shifts in steering patterns or moisture that could tip probabilities toward 11°C or higher.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan