Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
14°C 55%
15°C 36%
13°C 7.0%
16°C 2.4%
BARU
$22,412 Vol.
BARU
$22,412 Vol.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
7%
14°C
55%
15°C
36%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 55%
15°C 36%
13°C 7.0%
16°C 2.4%
BARU
$22,412 Vol.
BARU
$22,412 Vol.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$681 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$485 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$540 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$4,720 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,298 Vol.
1%
13°C
$2,853 Vol.
7%
14°C
$2,791 Vol.
55%
15°C
$2,021 Vol.
36%
16°C
$3,959 Vol.
2%
17°C
$1,164 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$916 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$22,412Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,412Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETCurrent short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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