**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
170-189 96.0%
190-209 9.7%
210-229 9.7%
<170 7.9%
$38,972 Vol.
$38,972 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
No
170-189
Yes
190-209
No
210-229
No
230+
No
170-189 96.0%
190-209 9.7%
210-229 9.7%
<170 7.9%
$38,972 Vol.
$38,972 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
$1,634 Vol.
No
170-189
$4,913 Vol.
Yes
190-209
$6,177 Vol.
No
210-229
$10,404 Vol.
No
230+
$15,845 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$38,972Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$38,972Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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