**Ongoing Houthi territorial advances and selective targeting of vessels—particularly Saudi-linked tonnage—have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed well below pre-2024 baselines of roughly 60–80 vessels per day (historical weekly totals often exceeding 400).** Recent data from sources such as Heimdall’s Brief and IMF PortWatch show daily crossings averaging around 20–30 in August and mid-September 2026, translating to weekly aggregates frequently landing in the 150–220 range amid rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value, and AIS-dark behavior by some operators. The week of September 14 falls amid fresh Houthi gains, including control of Mokha and Perim Island near the strait in early September, which tightened influence over the chokepoint and prompted further caution from carriers. Tanker volumes have been hit hardest, with some reports showing daily tanker transits near or below 10–15, while container and bulker flows show modest resilience but remain constrained. Italy’s independent escort planning signals limited near-term naval relief, and broader Red Sea/Hormuz disruptions continue to shape risk appetite. These dynamics position sub-170 transits as the market’s leading outcome (39.5% implied probability), with the 170–209 brackets reflecting the tight clustering around recent observed weekly levels. Any de-escalation in attacks or expanded escorted transits could support upside, but persistent security and insurance headwinds favor the lower ranges in the near term.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
<170 40%
170-189 22%
190-209 22%
210-229 11%
$10,548 Vol.
$10,548 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<170
40%
170-189
22%
190-209
22%
210-229
11%
230+
4%
<170 40%
170-189 22%
190-209 22%
210-229 11%
$10,548 Vol.
$10,548 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$4,277 Vol.
40%
170-189
$2,519 Vol.
22%
190-209
$1,420 Vol.
22%
210-229
$1,144 Vol.
11%
230+
$1,187 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi territorial advances and selective targeting of vessels—particularly Saudi-linked tonnage—have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed well below pre-2024 baselines of roughly 60–80 vessels per day (historical weekly totals often exceeding 400).** Recent data from sources such as Heimdall’s Brief and IMF PortWatch show daily crossings averaging around 20–30 in August and mid-September 2026, translating to weekly aggregates frequently landing in the 150–220 range amid rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value, and AIS-dark behavior by some operators.
The week of September 14 falls amid fresh Houthi gains, including control of Mokha and Perim Island near the strait in early September, which tightened influence over the chokepoint and prompted further caution from carriers. Tanker volumes have been hit hardest, with some reports showing daily tanker transits near or below 10–15, while container and bulker flows show modest resilience but remain constrained. Italy’s independent escort planning signals limited near-term naval relief, and broader Red Sea/Hormuz disruptions continue to shape risk appetite.
These dynamics position sub-170 transits as the market’s leading outcome (39.5% implied probability), with the 170–209 brackets reflecting the tight clustering around recent observed weekly levels. Any de-escalation in attacks or expanded escorted transits could support upside, but persistent security and insurance headwinds favor the lower ranges in the near term.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$10,548Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi territorial advances and selective targeting of vessels—particularly Saudi-linked tonnage—have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed well below pre-2024 baselines of roughly 60–80 vessels per day (historical weekly totals often exceeding 400).** Recent data from sources such as Heimdall’s Brief and IMF PortWatch show daily crossings averaging around 20–30 in August and mid-September 2026, translating to weekly aggregates frequently landing in the 150–220 range amid rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value, and AIS-dark behavior by some operators.
The week of September 14 falls amid fresh Houthi gains, including control of Mokha and Perim Island near the strait in early September, which tightened influence over the chokepoint and prompted further caution from carriers. Tanker volumes have been hit hardest, with some reports showing daily tanker transits near or below 10–15, while container and bulker flows show modest resilience but remain constrained. Italy’s independent escort planning signals limited near-term naval relief, and broader Red Sea/Hormuz disruptions continue to shape risk appetite.
These dynamics position sub-170 transits as the market’s leading outcome (39.5% implied probability), with the 170–209 brackets reflecting the tight clustering around recent observed weekly levels. Any de-escalation in attacks or expanded escorted transits could support upside, but persistent security and insurance headwinds favor the lower ranges in the near term.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$10,548Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi territorial advances and selective targeting of vessels—particularly Saudi-linked tonnage—have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed well below pre-2024 baselines of roughly 60–80 vessels per day (historical weekly totals often exceeding 400).** Recent data from sources such as Heimdall’s Brief and IMF PortWatch show daily crossings averaging around 20–30 in August and mid-September 2026, translating to weekly aggregates frequently landing in the 150–220 range amid rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value, and AIS-dark behavior by some operators. The week of September 14 falls amid fresh Houthi gains, including control of Mokha and Perim Island near the strait in early September, which tightened influence over the chokepoint and prompted further caution from carriers. Tanker volumes have been hit hardest, with some reports showing daily tanker transits near or below 10–15, while container and bulker flows show modest resilience but remain constrained. Italy’s independent escort planning signals limited near-term naval relief, and broader Red Sea/Hormuz disruptions continue to shape risk appetite. These dynamics position sub-170 transits as the market’s leading outcome (39.5% implied probability), with the 170–209 brackets reflecting the tight clustering around recent observed weekly levels. Any de-escalation in attacks or expanded escorted transits could support upside, but persistent security and insurance headwinds favor the lower ranges in the near term.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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