Iran’s longstanding insistence on preserving a domestic uranium enrichment capability as a sovereign right remains the central barrier, reinforced by repeated rejections of U.S. proposals for zero or long-term moratorium enrichment during 2025–2026 talks. Strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan in mid-2025 damaged key facilities and created verification gaps that the IAEA has yet to close, while recent memoranda reference only further discussions and stockpile down-blending without committing to a full end by late September. Traders price near-certainty of no agreement because no breakthrough has emerged from indirect negotiations, and Iran’s public red lines have held. A late diplomatic concession or verified dismantlement framework could still shift probabilities, though such steps would require rapid alignment on monitoring and sanctions relief absent in current positions.