Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has consolidated authority following the February 2026 leadership transition and wartime pressures, enabling security forces to suppress nationwide protests through arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns. The Supreme National Security Council has actively prepared responses to potential unrest driven by economic contraction and inflation, while factional rumors in April produced no organized challenge. These controls, combined with the regime’s focus on managing external conflict negotiations, have kept internal power structures intact. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that no coup attempt will occur by June 30, viewing the barriers to rapid elite defection or coordinated overthrow as substantial in the near term.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiYa
$1,122,908 Vol.
$1,122,908 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ya
$1,122,908 Vol.
$1,122,908 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has consolidated authority following the February 2026 leadership transition and wartime pressures, enabling security forces to suppress nationwide protests through arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns. The Supreme National Security Council has actively prepared responses to potential unrest driven by economic contraction and inflation, while factional rumors in April produced no organized challenge. These controls, combined with the regime’s focus on managing external conflict negotiations, have kept internal power structures intact. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that no coup attempt will occur by June 30, viewing the barriers to rapid elite defection or coordinated overthrow as substantial in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,122,908Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has consolidated authority following the February 2026 leadership transition and wartime pressures, enabling security forces to suppress nationwide protests through arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns. The Supreme National Security Council has actively prepared responses to potential unrest driven by economic contraction and inflation, while factional rumors in April produced no organized challenge. These controls, combined with the regime’s focus on managing external conflict negotiations, have kept internal power structures intact. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that no coup attempt will occur by June 30, viewing the barriers to rapid elite defection or coordinated overthrow as substantial in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,122,908Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has consolidated authority following the February 2026 leadership transition and wartime pressures, enabling security forces to suppress nationwide protests through arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns. The Supreme National Security Council has actively prepared responses to potential unrest driven by economic contraction and inflation, while factional rumors in April produced no organized challenge. These controls, combined with the regime’s focus on managing external conflict negotiations, have kept internal power structures intact. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that no coup attempt will occur by June 30, viewing the barriers to rapid elite defection or coordinated overthrow as substantial in the near term.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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