**Traders assign a 94% probability that charges against former FBI Director James Comey will not be dropped by July 31, 2026, reflecting the active status of the April 2026 federal indictment in the Eastern District of North Carolina.** A grand jury charged Comey with one count of threatening the president and one count of transmitting a threat in interstate commerce, stemming from a 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47.” The case remains in pretrial proceedings, with an arraignment set for late June and a trial date of October 21 after an earlier July schedule was postponed. Defense counsel plans motions to dismiss on grounds including selective or vindictive prosecution, but these filings and any rulings are not expected to conclude before the July 31 cutoff. An earlier 2025 indictment on unrelated false-statement and obstruction counts was dismissed without prejudice in November 2025, yet the Justice Department has shown continued intent to pursue the new threat allegations. This procedural timeline and prosecutorial posture underpin the strong market consensus against charges being dropped within the specified window.