Skip to main content
icon for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
Geopolitik·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

icon for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
Geopolitik·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Jun 30

Jun 30

2% peluang
Polymarket

$618,927 Vol.

2% peluang
Polymarket

$618,927 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$618,927
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$618,927
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 2% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 2¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 2% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" telah menghasilkan $618.9K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 2, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" adalah 2% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 2% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.