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Politik·Likud

Likud Party Primary Winner

icon for Likud Party Primary Winner
Politik·Likud

Likud Party Primary Winner

Amir Ohana 81%

Yariv Levin 5.9%

Tally Gotliv 5.8%

Eli Cohen 5.1%

Polymarket

$60,775 Vol.

Amir Ohana 81%

Yariv Levin 5.9%

Tally Gotliv 5.8%

Eli Cohen 5.1%

Polymarket

$60,775 Vol.

icon for Amir Ohana

Amir Ohana

$19,298 Vol.

81%

icon for Yariv Levin

Yariv Levin

$3,909 Vol.

6%

icon for Tally Gotliv

Tally Gotliv

$13,081 Vol.

6%

icon for Eli Cohen

Eli Cohen

$1,556 Vol.

5%

icon for No Primary by Knesset Election

No Primary by Knesset Election

$9,710 Vol.

2%

icon for Boaz Bismuth

Boaz Bismuth

$1,287 Vol.

1%

icon for Miri Regev

Miri Regev

$655 Vol.

1%

icon for Shlomo Karhi

Shlomo Karhi

$1,016 Vol.

1%

icon for Israel Katz

Israel Katz

$2,245 Vol.

1%

icon for Moshe Saada

Moshe Saada

$882 Vol.

1%

icon for David Amsalem

David Amsalem

$832 Vol.

1%

icon for Almog Cohen

Almog Cohen

$909 Vol.

1%

icon for Amichai Chikli

Amichai Chikli

$910 Vol.

1%

icon for Nir Barkat

Nir Barkat

$2,180 Vol.

<1%

icon for Yoav Kisch

Yoav Kisch

$841 Vol.

<1%

icon for Miki Zohar

Miki Zohar

$667 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Bitan

David Bitan

$800 Vol.

<1%

Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana holds the clearest lead in the Likud primary for Knesset candidate slots, reflecting consistent polling among registered party members that places him well ahead of other contenders. Recent internal surveys show him topping preferences for the national list, supported by his role as Knesset Speaker and visibility in party structures ahead of the August 17 voting window. Netanyahu’s expanded reserved slots have intensified competition for the remaining positions, yet this has not shifted the frontrunner status in member surveys. Lower-priced outcomes such as Tally Gotliv, Yariv Levin, Eli Cohen, and Boaz Bismuth align with their secondary standing in the same polls, while the slim probability assigned to no primary reflects the confirmed schedule despite ongoing procedural disputes. Traders appear to price in these member-driven dynamics and the single-day vote as the decisive factors.

Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.

If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".

If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Volume
$60,775
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 26, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana holds the clearest lead in the Likud primary for Knesset candidate slots, reflecting consistent polling among registered party members that places him well ahead of other contenders. Recent internal surveys show him topping preferences for the national list, supported by his role as Knesset Speaker and visibility in party structures ahead of the August 17 voting window. Netanyahu’s expanded reserved slots have intensified competition for the remaining positions, yet this has not shifted the frontrunner status in member surveys. Lower-priced outcomes such as Tally Gotliv, Yariv Levin, Eli Cohen, and Boaz Bismuth align with their secondary standing in the same polls, while the slim probability assigned to no primary reflects the confirmed schedule despite ongoing procedural disputes. Traders appear to price in these member-driven dynamics and the single-day vote as the decisive factors.

Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.

If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".

If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Volume
$60,775
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 26, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.

Terkait

icon for Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

35%
icon for Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

51%
icon for Israel election: will Likud lose seats?

Israel election: will Likud lose seats?

87%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Likud Party Primary Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 17 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Amir Ohana" di 81%, diikuti oleh "Yariv Levin" di 6%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 81¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 81% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Likud Party Primary Winner" telah menghasilkan $60.8K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 21, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Likud Party Primary Winner," jelajahi 17 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Likud Party Primary Winner" adalah "Amir Ohana" di 81%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 81% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Yariv Levin" di 6%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Likud Party Primary Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.