Recent forecast model consensus from official meteorological sources supports the market's strong 95% implied probability on a 7°C minimum in Moscow on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow and stable high pressure maintaining overnight radiative cooling without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical daily minima near 10–12°C, making this cooler outcome notable yet aligned with current observational trends of gradual seasonal decline. Key resolution factors include verified station readings at standard times, with realistic challenges limited to unexpected warm advection or model bias revisions in final data releases. Traders appear to weigh the consistency of ensemble runs and real-time surface observations as reinforcing this outcome over lower-probability deviations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Moscow on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 19?
7°C 95%
5°C 10%
6°C 10%
4°C 5%
$801 Vol.
$801 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
3°C or below
1%
4°C
5%
5°C
10%
6°C
10%
7°C
95%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
7°C 95%
5°C 10%
6°C 10%
4°C 5%
$801 Vol.
$801 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
3°C or below
$31 Vol.
1%
4°C
$0 Vol.
5%
5°C
$0 Vol.
10%
6°C
$15 Vol.
10%
7°C
$15 Vol.
95%
8°C
$245 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$237 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$147 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
13°C or higher
$37 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from official meteorological sources supports the market's strong 95% implied probability on a 7°C minimum in Moscow on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow and stable high pressure maintaining overnight radiative cooling without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical daily minima near 10–12°C, making this cooler outcome notable yet aligned with current observational trends of gradual seasonal decline. Key resolution factors include verified station readings at standard times, with realistic challenges limited to unexpected warm advection or model bias revisions in final data releases. Traders appear to weigh the consistency of ensemble runs and real-time surface observations as reinforcing this outcome over lower-probability deviations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$801Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from official meteorological sources supports the market's strong 95% implied probability on a 7°C minimum in Moscow on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow and stable high pressure maintaining overnight radiative cooling without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical daily minima near 10–12°C, making this cooler outcome notable yet aligned with current observational trends of gradual seasonal decline. Key resolution factors include verified station readings at standard times, with realistic challenges limited to unexpected warm advection or model bias revisions in final data releases. Traders appear to weigh the consistency of ensemble runs and real-time surface observations as reinforcing this outcome over lower-probability deviations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$801Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from official meteorological sources supports the market's strong 95% implied probability on a 7°C minimum in Moscow on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow and stable high pressure maintaining overnight radiative cooling without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical daily minima near 10–12°C, making this cooler outcome notable yet aligned with current observational trends of gradual seasonal decline. Key resolution factors include verified station readings at standard times, with realistic challenges limited to unexpected warm advection or model bias revisions in final data releases. Traders appear to weigh the consistency of ensemble runs and real-time surface observations as reinforcing this outcome over lower-probability deviations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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