Current forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where maritime moderation and urban heat-island effects at Pudong routinely stabilize minimum temperatures within a narrow 17–21°C climatological range. Resolution hinges on official China Meteorological Administration observations at the primary Shanghai station. An unexpected frontal passage or stronger-than-anticipated northerly flow could shift the low to 18°C or below, while a shallower boundary layer or persistent southwesterly return flow might keep readings at or above 20°C—scenarios that remain low-probability given the latest model guidance.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,123 Vol.
$11,123 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,123 Vol.
$11,123 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$776 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$626 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$563 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$934 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$901 Vol.
1%
19°C
$2,045 Vol.
99%
20°C
$2,433 Vol.
1%
21°C
$957 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$528 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$583 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$778 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where maritime moderation and urban heat-island effects at Pudong routinely stabilize minimum temperatures within a narrow 17–21°C climatological range. Resolution hinges on official China Meteorological Administration observations at the primary Shanghai station. An unexpected frontal passage or stronger-than-anticipated northerly flow could shift the low to 18°C or below, while a shallower boundary layer or persistent southwesterly return flow might keep readings at or above 20°C—scenarios that remain low-probability given the latest model guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$11,123Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where maritime moderation and urban heat-island effects at Pudong routinely stabilize minimum temperatures within a narrow 17–21°C climatological range. Resolution hinges on official China Meteorological Administration observations at the primary Shanghai station. An unexpected frontal passage or stronger-than-anticipated northerly flow could shift the low to 18°C or below, while a shallower boundary layer or persistent southwesterly return flow might keep readings at or above 20°C—scenarios that remain low-probability given the latest model guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,123Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDCurrent forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where maritime moderation and urban heat-island effects at Pudong routinely stabilize minimum temperatures within a narrow 17–21°C climatological range. Resolution hinges on official China Meteorological Administration observations at the primary Shanghai station. An unexpected frontal passage or stronger-than-anticipated northerly flow could shift the low to 18°C or below, while a shallower boundary layer or persistent southwesterly return flow might keep readings at or above 20°C—scenarios that remain low-probability given the latest model guidance.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan