Current forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate that persistent cloud cover, southerly flow, and scattered showers or thunderstorms on September 15 will moderate overnight radiative cooling, keeping Tokyo's minimum temperature centered in the 22–24 °C range. Ensemble guidance shows limited diurnal drop under humid conditions with dew points near 22–23 °C, while recent observations from mid-September 2026 already reflect above-normal minima near 20 °C amid active weather patterns. Market-implied probabilities place the highest weight on 23 °C and 22 °C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model spread around land-sea breeze effects and precipitation timing. Final JMA updates and short-range model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 15?
23°C 39%
22°C 32%
24°C 23%
19°C or below 16%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
16%
20°C
13%
21°C
6%
22°C
32%
23°C
39%
24°C
23%
25°C
8%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C or higher
2%
23°C 39%
22°C 32%
24°C 23%
19°C or below 16%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
$10 Vol.
16%
20°C
$30 Vol.
13%
21°C
$31 Vol.
6%
22°C
$237 Vol.
32%
23°C
$125 Vol.
39%
24°C
$331 Vol.
23%
25°C
$31 Vol.
8%
26°C
$10 Vol.
2%
27°C
$10 Vol.
2%
28°C
$10 Vol.
2%
29°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate that persistent cloud cover, southerly flow, and scattered showers or thunderstorms on September 15 will moderate overnight radiative cooling, keeping Tokyo's minimum temperature centered in the 22–24 °C range. Ensemble guidance shows limited diurnal drop under humid conditions with dew points near 22–23 °C, while recent observations from mid-September 2026 already reflect above-normal minima near 20 °C amid active weather patterns. Market-implied probabilities place the highest weight on 23 °C and 22 °C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model spread around land-sea breeze effects and precipitation timing. Final JMA updates and short-range model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$836Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate that persistent cloud cover, southerly flow, and scattered showers or thunderstorms on September 15 will moderate overnight radiative cooling, keeping Tokyo's minimum temperature centered in the 22–24 °C range. Ensemble guidance shows limited diurnal drop under humid conditions with dew points near 22–23 °C, while recent observations from mid-September 2026 already reflect above-normal minima near 20 °C amid active weather patterns. Market-implied probabilities place the highest weight on 23 °C and 22 °C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model spread around land-sea breeze effects and precipitation timing. Final JMA updates and short-range model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$836Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate that persistent cloud cover, southerly flow, and scattered showers or thunderstorms on September 15 will moderate overnight radiative cooling, keeping Tokyo's minimum temperature centered in the 22–24 °C range. Ensemble guidance shows limited diurnal drop under humid conditions with dew points near 22–23 °C, while recent observations from mid-September 2026 already reflect above-normal minima near 20 °C amid active weather patterns. Market-implied probabilities place the highest weight on 23 °C and 22 °C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model spread around land-sea breeze effects and precipitation timing. Final JMA updates and short-range model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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