Recent analyses and internal signals have reinforced trader consensus around OpenAI likely remaining private through the end of 2026, with the market assigning a 75% probability to no IPO by December 31. The company’s $852 billion valuation after its March 2026 funding round, paired with expected $14 billion losses this year and missed revenue and user targets, has prompted PitchBook to shift its realistic timeline to mid-to-late 2027. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar has flagged a 2026 filing as overly aggressive, creating tension with chief executive Sam Altman’s preference for a late-year listing. These factors, alongside the need for regulatory filings and sustained artificial intelligence model performance, have kept higher-valuation brackets below 11% combined while highlighting the uncertainty typical of large-scale technology company transitions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak IPO sebelum 31 Desember 2026 74%
1,5T+ 10.6%
1,25T–1,5T 3.7%
500–750M 3.5%
$1,638,628 Vol.
$1,638,628 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500M
1%
500–750M
3%
750M–1T
2%
1T–1,25T
2%
1,25T–1,5T
4%
1,5T+
11%
Tidak IPO sebelum 31 Desember 2026
74%
Tidak IPO sebelum 31 Desember 2026 74%
1,5T+ 10.6%
1,25T–1,5T 3.7%
500–750M 3.5%
$1,638,628 Vol.
$1,638,628 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500M
$266,170 Vol.
1%
500–750M
$146,331 Vol.
3%
750M–1T
$141,040 Vol.
2%
1T–1,25T
$182,614 Vol.
2%
1,25T–1,5T
$496,517 Vol.
4%
1,5T+
$100,918 Vol.
11%
Tidak IPO sebelum 31 Desember 2026
$305,039 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Recent analyses and internal signals have reinforced trader consensus around OpenAI likely remaining private through the end of 2026, with the market assigning a 75% probability to no IPO by December 31. The company’s $852 billion valuation after its March 2026 funding round, paired with expected $14 billion losses this year and missed revenue and user targets, has prompted PitchBook to shift its realistic timeline to mid-to-late 2027. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar has flagged a 2026 filing as overly aggressive, creating tension with chief executive Sam Altman’s preference for a late-year listing. These factors, alongside the need for regulatory filings and sustained artificial intelligence model performance, have kept higher-valuation brackets below 11% combined while highlighting the uncertainty typical of large-scale technology company transitions.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,638,628Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Recent analyses and internal signals have reinforced trader consensus around OpenAI likely remaining private through the end of 2026, with the market assigning a 75% probability to no IPO by December 31. The company’s $852 billion valuation after its March 2026 funding round, paired with expected $14 billion losses this year and missed revenue and user targets, has prompted PitchBook to shift its realistic timeline to mid-to-late 2027. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar has flagged a 2026 filing as overly aggressive, creating tension with chief executive Sam Altman’s preference for a late-year listing. These factors, alongside the need for regulatory filings and sustained artificial intelligence model performance, have kept higher-valuation brackets below 11% combined while highlighting the uncertainty typical of large-scale technology company transitions.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,638,628Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent analyses and internal signals have reinforced trader consensus around OpenAI likely remaining private through the end of 2026, with the market assigning a 75% probability to no IPO by December 31. The company’s $852 billion valuation after its March 2026 funding round, paired with expected $14 billion losses this year and missed revenue and user targets, has prompted PitchBook to shift its realistic timeline to mid-to-late 2027. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar has flagged a 2026 filing as overly aggressive, creating tension with chief executive Sam Altman’s preference for a late-year listing. These factors, alongside the need for regulatory filings and sustained artificial intelligence model performance, have kept higher-valuation brackets below 11% combined while highlighting the uncertainty typical of large-scale technology company transitions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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