Recent RSF drone strikes on El Obeid, Khartoum, and northern cities in mid-August 2026, alongside claims of retaking Geissan near the Ethiopian border, underscore ongoing escalation between the SAF and RSF. These military actions follow stalled multilateral mediation, including Quad and African Union initiatives for a humanitarian truce and political process. External arms flows and proxy interests continue to hinder unified pressure for de-escalation. A July 2026 U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal reached Sudanese authorities but produced no agreement, leaving trader sentiment anchored on persistent battlefield dynamics rather than imminent diplomatic breakthroughs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$106,300 Vol.
December 31, 2026
15%
$106,300 Vol.
December 31, 2026
15%
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent RSF drone strikes on El Obeid, Khartoum, and northern cities in mid-August 2026, alongside claims of retaking Geissan near the Ethiopian border, underscore ongoing escalation between the SAF and RSF. These military actions follow stalled multilateral mediation, including Quad and African Union initiatives for a humanitarian truce and political process. External arms flows and proxy interests continue to hinder unified pressure for de-escalation. A July 2026 U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal reached Sudanese authorities but produced no agreement, leaving trader sentiment anchored on persistent battlefield dynamics rather than imminent diplomatic breakthroughs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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