President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on whether an explosive nuclear test occurs by late 2026. Administration officials, including Under Secretary Thomas DiNanno, have described the effort as still under assessment without a finalized program scope or timeline, distinguishing between potential subcritical experiments and full-yield detonations. New START's February 2026 expiration and routine non-nuclear activities such as Minuteman III launches provide context, yet no yield-producing test has taken place. Low market probabilities reflect institutional, diplomatic, and technical hurdles, with odds sensitive to any confirmed site preparations, congressional funding decisions, or shifts in U.S.-Russia-China arms control talks through year-end.
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$770,068 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
30 September 2026
1%
31 Desember 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
30 September 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 Desember 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on whether an explosive nuclear test occurs by late 2026. Administration officials, including Under Secretary Thomas DiNanno, have described the effort as still under assessment without a finalized program scope or timeline, distinguishing between potential subcritical experiments and full-yield detonations. New START's February 2026 expiration and routine non-nuclear activities such as Minuteman III launches provide context, yet no yield-producing test has taken place. Low market probabilities reflect institutional, diplomatic, and technical hurdles, with odds sensitive to any confirmed site preparations, congressional funding decisions, or shifts in U.S.-Russia-China arms control talks through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$770,068Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on whether an explosive nuclear test occurs by late 2026. Administration officials, including Under Secretary Thomas DiNanno, have described the effort as still under assessment without a finalized program scope or timeline, distinguishing between potential subcritical experiments and full-yield detonations. New START's February 2026 expiration and routine non-nuclear activities such as Minuteman III launches provide context, yet no yield-producing test has taken place. Low market probabilities reflect institutional, diplomatic, and technical hurdles, with odds sensitive to any confirmed site preparations, congressional funding decisions, or shifts in U.S.-Russia-China arms control talks through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$770,068Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on whether an explosive nuclear test occurs by late 2026. Administration officials, including Under Secretary Thomas DiNanno, have described the effort as still under assessment without a finalized program scope or timeline, distinguishing between potential subcritical experiments and full-yield detonations. New START's February 2026 expiration and routine non-nuclear activities such as Minuteman III launches provide context, yet no yield-producing test has taken place. Low market probabilities reflect institutional, diplomatic, and technical hurdles, with odds sensitive to any confirmed site preparations, congressional funding decisions, or shifts in U.S.-Russia-China arms control talks through year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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