The absence of any formal U.S. diplomatic recognition or State Department endorsement of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader underpins the 91.5% implied probability that such an outcome will not occur by the end of 2026. President Trump has publicly described Pahlavi as a "very nice person" while stressing preference for an internal successor with domestic backing, limiting consideration of the exiled figure amid ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and ceasefire talks. Pahlavi's public calls for regime change and criticism of mixed U.S. signals on diplomacy versus opposition support have not translated into policy shifts, consistent with historical reluctance to anoint specific diaspora candidates. This trader consensus reflects the lack of concrete announcements or actions that would alter the current trajectory before the resolution date.