The high probability assigned to "No" reflects the absence of any formal US diplomatic shift toward recognizing Russian control over Ukrainian territory amid stalled peace efforts. Since early 2025, Trump administration mediation—including summits, draft proposals for territorial adjustments, and temporary ceasefires—has produced no agreement, with talks collapsing over Russia's demands for sovereignty concessions and Ukraine's refusal to cede ground without security guarantees. Recent developments, such as US licensing of Patriot missile production for Ukraine and official acknowledgments of Ukrainian battlefield gains in mid-2026, underscore sustained American support for Kyiv's territorial integrity rather than de jure recognition of Russian annexations. Ongoing Russian advances remain limited and costly, while Ukrainian domestic resistance and lack of new diplomatic breakthroughs through August 2026 reinforce trader consensus against near-term US policy reversal.