Anthropic holds an overwhelming 87.9% implied probability for the best AI model on LiveBench Coding at end of September, driven by its Claude series' demonstrated strengths in code generation, reasoning, and complex problem-solving benchmarks. Recent model iterations have shown measurable gains in handling long-context programming tasks and agentic workflows, outpacing competitors in independent evaluations. OpenAI trails at 10% amid ongoing GPT updates, while other labs remain under 1% due to less competitive coding-specific results. With the September evaluation window closing soon, traders are pricing in limited upside for challengers unless a surprise release or benchmark shift occurs in the final days.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 88.1%
OpenAI 10.0%
SpaceXAI 1.5%
Meta <1%
$62,173 Vol.
$62,173 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
88%
OpenAI
10%
SpaceXAI
2%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 88.1%
OpenAI 10.0%
SpaceXAI 1.5%
Meta <1%
$62,173 Vol.
$62,173 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$21,896 Vol.
88%
OpenAI
$20,318 Vol.
10%
SpaceXAI
$3,129 Vol.
2%
Meta
$3,162 Vol.
<1%
$378 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$777 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$791 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$517 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,144 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$838 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$810 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$860 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$886 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,293 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$811 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$912 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$428 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,096 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$937 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$839 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an overwhelming 87.9% implied probability for the best AI model on LiveBench Coding at end of September, driven by its Claude series' demonstrated strengths in code generation, reasoning, and complex problem-solving benchmarks. Recent model iterations have shown measurable gains in handling long-context programming tasks and agentic workflows, outpacing competitors in independent evaluations. OpenAI trails at 10% amid ongoing GPT updates, while other labs remain under 1% due to less competitive coding-specific results. With the September evaluation window closing soon, traders are pricing in limited upside for challengers unless a surprise release or benchmark shift occurs in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$62,173Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an overwhelming 87.9% implied probability for the best AI model on LiveBench Coding at end of September, driven by its Claude series' demonstrated strengths in code generation, reasoning, and complex problem-solving benchmarks. Recent model iterations have shown measurable gains in handling long-context programming tasks and agentic workflows, outpacing competitors in independent evaluations. OpenAI trails at 10% amid ongoing GPT updates, while other labs remain under 1% due to less competitive coding-specific results. With the September evaluation window closing soon, traders are pricing in limited upside for challengers unless a surprise release or benchmark shift occurs in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$62,173Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an overwhelming 87.9% implied probability for the best AI model on LiveBench Coding at end of September, driven by its Claude series' demonstrated strengths in code generation, reasoning, and complex problem-solving benchmarks. Recent model iterations have shown measurable gains in handling long-context programming tasks and agentic workflows, outpacing competitors in independent evaluations. OpenAI trails at 10% amid ongoing GPT updates, while other labs remain under 1% due to less competitive coding-specific results. With the September evaluation window closing soon, traders are pricing in limited upside for challengers unless a surprise release or benchmark shift occurs in the final days.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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