Emerging El Niño conditions are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity and supporting the market-implied 89.5% probability against any Category 5 landfall in the continental United States before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 season project below-average totals of roughly 12–13 named storms, 5–6 hurricanes, and only 1–2 major hurricanes, driven by elevated vertical wind shear that inhibits rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds exceeding 157 mph. Only four such U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1851, averaging once every 35–40 years. With the official season beginning June 1 and no tropical systems currently under watch, the next National Hurricane Center outlook on May 21 will provide updated model guidance on steering patterns and intensification potential through the peak months.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$135,286 Vol.
$135,286 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$135,286 Vol.
$135,286 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Emerging El Niño conditions are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity and supporting the market-implied 89.5% probability against any Category 5 landfall in the continental United States before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 season project below-average totals of roughly 12–13 named storms, 5–6 hurricanes, and only 1–2 major hurricanes, driven by elevated vertical wind shear that inhibits rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds exceeding 157 mph. Only four such U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1851, averaging once every 35–40 years. With the official season beginning June 1 and no tropical systems currently under watch, the next National Hurricane Center outlook on May 21 will provide updated model guidance on steering patterns and intensification potential through the peak months.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$135,286Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Emerging El Niño conditions are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity and supporting the market-implied 89.5% probability against any Category 5 landfall in the continental United States before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 season project below-average totals of roughly 12–13 named storms, 5–6 hurricanes, and only 1–2 major hurricanes, driven by elevated vertical wind shear that inhibits rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds exceeding 157 mph. Only four such U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1851, averaging once every 35–40 years. With the official season beginning June 1 and no tropical systems currently under watch, the next National Hurricane Center outlook on May 21 will provide updated model guidance on steering patterns and intensification potential through the peak months.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$135,286Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Emerging El Niño conditions are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity and supporting the market-implied 89.5% probability against any Category 5 landfall in the continental United States before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 season project below-average totals of roughly 12–13 named storms, 5–6 hurricanes, and only 1–2 major hurricanes, driven by elevated vertical wind shear that inhibits rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds exceeding 157 mph. Only four such U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1851, averaging once every 35–40 years. With the official season beginning June 1 and no tropical systems currently under watch, the next National Hurricane Center outlook on May 21 will provide updated model guidance on steering patterns and intensification potential through the peak months.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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