Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in 2026, including March strikes on Kharg Island military targets and subsequent naval blockades, have idled the terminal handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, tightening global energy supply and elevating Brent and WTI volatility. Kharg, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands, remains under Tehran’s control despite speculation of potential seizures to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of seaborne oil trade. Renewed attacks and MOU breakdowns since July have sustained the blockade, stalling tanker loadings and pressuring Iranian revenues while supporting higher energy prices. Traders monitor upcoming diplomatic deadlines and any shifts in U.S. posture for signals on territorial outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$91,726 Vol.
30 set 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
4%
$91,726 Vol.
August 31
$23,708 Vol.
1%
September 30
$68,018 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in 2026, including March strikes on Kharg Island military targets and subsequent naval blockades, have idled the terminal handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, tightening global energy supply and elevating Brent and WTI volatility. Kharg, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands, remains under Tehran’s control despite speculation of potential seizures to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of seaborne oil trade. Renewed attacks and MOU breakdowns since July have sustained the blockade, stalling tanker loadings and pressuring Iranian revenues while supporting higher energy prices. Traders monitor upcoming diplomatic deadlines and any shifts in U.S. posture for signals on territorial outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$91,726Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in 2026, including March strikes on Kharg Island military targets and subsequent naval blockades, have idled the terminal handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, tightening global energy supply and elevating Brent and WTI volatility. Kharg, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands, remains under Tehran’s control despite speculation of potential seizures to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of seaborne oil trade. Renewed attacks and MOU breakdowns since July have sustained the blockade, stalling tanker loadings and pressuring Iranian revenues while supporting higher energy prices. Traders monitor upcoming diplomatic deadlines and any shifts in U.S. posture for signals on territorial outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$91,726Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in 2026, including March strikes on Kharg Island military targets and subsequent naval blockades, have idled the terminal handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, tightening global energy supply and elevating Brent and WTI volatility. Kharg, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands, remains under Tehran’s control despite speculation of potential seizures to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of seaborne oil trade. Renewed attacks and MOU breakdowns since July have sustained the blockade, stalling tanker loadings and pressuring Iranian revenues while supporting higher energy prices. Traders monitor upcoming diplomatic deadlines and any shifts in U.S. posture for signals on territorial outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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