Recent inflation data showing July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year—with core at 2.5%—alongside the Fed’s June and July holds at the 3.5–3.75% federal funds target range, underpin the 75.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The July decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting divided views amid resilient growth and energy price pressures, while futures markets price limited near-term easing. Traders see the upcoming September 15–16 meeting as the next key catalyst, with incoming CPI and labor reports likely to sustain the pause consensus absent a sharp disinflationary surprise.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPause–Pause–Pause 75%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$738,667 Vol.
$738,667 Vol.
16 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
24%
Pause–Pause–Pause 75%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$738,667 Vol.
$738,667 Vol.
16 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,190 Vol.
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$72,880 Vol.
<1%
Other
$319,721 Vol.
24%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data showing July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year—with core at 2.5%—alongside the Fed’s June and July holds at the 3.5–3.75% federal funds target range, underpin the 75.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The July decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting divided views amid resilient growth and energy price pressures, while futures markets price limited near-term easing. Traders see the upcoming September 15–16 meeting as the next key catalyst, with incoming CPI and labor reports likely to sustain the pause consensus absent a sharp disinflationary surprise.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$738,667Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data showing July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year—with core at 2.5%—alongside the Fed’s June and July holds at the 3.5–3.75% federal funds target range, underpin the 75.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The July decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting divided views amid resilient growth and energy price pressures, while futures markets price limited near-term easing. Traders see the upcoming September 15–16 meeting as the next key catalyst, with incoming CPI and labor reports likely to sustain the pause consensus absent a sharp disinflationary surprise.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$738,667Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data showing July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year—with core at 2.5%—alongside the Fed’s June and July holds at the 3.5–3.75% federal funds target range, underpin the 75.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The July decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting divided views amid resilient growth and energy price pressures, while futures markets price limited near-term easing. Traders see the upcoming September 15–16 meeting as the next key catalyst, with incoming CPI and labor reports likely to sustain the pause consensus absent a sharp disinflationary surprise.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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