Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized rebound from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction, driven by stronger business investment in AI equipment and a government-spending recovery, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0% range for full-year growth. Market-implied odds reflect this base case amid moderating consumer outlays and persistent tariff effects, while the closely contested 33.5% probability on >2.5% growth incorporates upside from fiscal easing and equity wealth effects. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market releases and FOMC guidance on the policy rate path, with the 2.0–2.5% bucket trailing at 22.0% as forecasters balance resilient capital spending against slower hiring trends.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita del PIL nel 2026
Crescita del PIL nel 2026
2,0–2,5% 19%
<0,5% 18.6%
1,0–1,5% 12.6%
0,5–1,0% 12.4%
$28,267 Vol.
$28,267 Vol.
29 gen 2027
<0,5%
19%
0,5–1,0%
12%
1,0–1,5%
13%
1,5–2,0%
43%
2,0–2,5%
22%
>2,5%
35%
2,0–2,5% 19%
<0,5% 18.6%
1,0–1,5% 12.6%
0,5–1,0% 12.4%
$28,267 Vol.
$28,267 Vol.
29 gen 2027
<0,5%
$3,906 Vol.
19%
0,5–1,0%
$15,332 Vol.
12%
1,0–1,5%
$1,562 Vol.
13%
1,5–2,0%
$1,534 Vol.
43%
2,0–2,5%
$1,846 Vol.
22%
>2,5%
$4,088 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized rebound from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction, driven by stronger business investment in AI equipment and a government-spending recovery, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0% range for full-year growth. Market-implied odds reflect this base case amid moderating consumer outlays and persistent tariff effects, while the closely contested 33.5% probability on >2.5% growth incorporates upside from fiscal easing and equity wealth effects. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market releases and FOMC guidance on the policy rate path, with the 2.0–2.5% bucket trailing at 22.0% as forecasters balance resilient capital spending against slower hiring trends.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$28,267Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized rebound from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction, driven by stronger business investment in AI equipment and a government-spending recovery, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0% range for full-year growth. Market-implied odds reflect this base case amid moderating consumer outlays and persistent tariff effects, while the closely contested 33.5% probability on >2.5% growth incorporates upside from fiscal easing and equity wealth effects. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market releases and FOMC guidance on the policy rate path, with the 2.0–2.5% bucket trailing at 22.0% as forecasters balance resilient capital spending against slower hiring trends.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,267Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized rebound from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction, driven by stronger business investment in AI equipment and a government-spending recovery, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0% range for full-year growth. Market-implied odds reflect this base case amid moderating consumer outlays and persistent tariff effects, while the closely contested 33.5% probability on >2.5% growth incorporates upside from fiscal easing and equity wealth effects. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market releases and FOMC guidance on the policy rate path, with the 2.0–2.5% bucket trailing at 22.0% as forecasters balance resilient capital spending against slower hiring trends.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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