**Congress has only recently begun the FY 2027 appropriations process, with House subcommittees advancing initial bills in late April and early June 2026.** This early timing, more than three months before the September 30 funding deadline, gives lawmakers substantial room to negotiate full-year measures or enact a continuing resolution (CR) to prevent a lapse. Recent experience reinforces this outlook. FY 2026 required multiple CRs and produced partial shutdowns tied to disputes over immigration enforcement and agency funding, yet Congress repeatedly extended stopgap measures and ultimately completed most appropriations. Similar dynamics—partisan divisions over spending priorities, border security, and policy riders—are expected for FY 2027, but the calendar buffer reduces the immediate risk of a lapse by October 1. Trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% “No” price incorporates these procedural realities: historical reliance on CRs when regular order stalls, the absence of an imminent fiscal cliff, and the practical incentive for both chambers and the administration to avoid another disruptive shutdown. While prolonged stalemate remains possible later in the summer, current conditions favor a temporary extension over an immediate funding gap.