Persistent Houthi threats and the July 20 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships daily in late July and early August, down sharply from earlier 2026 peaks near 50. Recent developments, including a deadly August 11 Houthi strike on a cargo ship and denial of transit fees, sustain elevated risk premiums and rerouting incentives, while modest rebounds to 40 crossings on August 11 reflect partial stabilization. These dynamics produce tightly clustered market-implied odds around 180-219 weekly transits, as traders weigh ongoing geopolitical friction against potential de-escalation signals and IMF Portwatch data releases for the August 10-16 period.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 10 agosto?
Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 10 agosto?
180-199 35%
220+ 17%
<180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 Vol.
$12,247 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<180
32%
180-199
35%
200-219
38%
220+
35%
180-199 35%
220+ 17%
<180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 Vol.
$12,247 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<180
$6,149 Vol.
32%
180-199
$2,022 Vol.
35%
200-219
$812 Vol.
38%
220+
$3,264 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats and the July 20 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships daily in late July and early August, down sharply from earlier 2026 peaks near 50. Recent developments, including a deadly August 11 Houthi strike on a cargo ship and denial of transit fees, sustain elevated risk premiums and rerouting incentives, while modest rebounds to 40 crossings on August 11 reflect partial stabilization. These dynamics produce tightly clustered market-implied odds around 180-219 weekly transits, as traders weigh ongoing geopolitical friction against potential de-escalation signals and IMF Portwatch data releases for the August 10-16 period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercato aperto: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$12,247Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats and the July 20 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships daily in late July and early August, down sharply from earlier 2026 peaks near 50. Recent developments, including a deadly August 11 Houthi strike on a cargo ship and denial of transit fees, sustain elevated risk premiums and rerouting incentives, while modest rebounds to 40 crossings on August 11 reflect partial stabilization. These dynamics produce tightly clustered market-implied odds around 180-219 weekly transits, as traders weigh ongoing geopolitical friction against potential de-escalation signals and IMF Portwatch data releases for the August 10-16 period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$12,247Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi threats and the July 20 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships daily in late July and early August, down sharply from earlier 2026 peaks near 50. Recent developments, including a deadly August 11 Houthi strike on a cargo ship and denial of transit fees, sustain elevated risk premiums and rerouting incentives, while modest rebounds to 40 crossings on August 11 reflect partial stabilization. These dynamics produce tightly clustered market-implied odds around 180-219 weekly transits, as traders weigh ongoing geopolitical friction against potential de-escalation signals and IMF Portwatch data releases for the August 10-16 period.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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