Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
$905,252 Vol.
31 lug 2026
July 7
$14,780 Vol.
3%
July 31
$281,723 Vol.
11%
$905,252 Vol.
July 7
$14,780 Vol.
3%
July 31
$281,723 Vol.
11%
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.Iran and the United States signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for technical negotiations on a final agreement covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional ceasefires including Lebanon. As of June 21–22, talks in Switzerland have focused on sequencing, with Iranian negotiators insisting that clauses on Lebanese ceasefire, asset releases, and naval de-escalation must be implemented before nuclear discussions advance. Iranian officials temporarily withdrew from sessions in protest of U.S. statements before returning, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue facilitating working groups. These frictions over implementation timelines and leverage points in the MOU directly shape trader assessments of any near-term Iranian announcement of withdrawal from the process.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
Iran and the United States signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for technical negotiations on a final agreement covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional ceasefires including Lebanon. As of June 21–22, talks in Switzerland have focused on sequencing, with Iranian negotiators insisting that clauses on Lebanese ceasefire, asset releases, and naval de-escalation must be implemented before nuclear discussions advance. Iranian officials temporarily withdrew from sessions in protest of U.S. statements before returning, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue facilitating working groups. These frictions over implementation timelines and leverage points in the MOU directly shape trader assessments of any near-term Iranian announcement of withdrawal from the process.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Jul 2 2026
US and Iran agree to continue discussions after Doha talks
On July 2, 2026, following indirect talks in Doha, US and Iranian negotiators separately met with mediators and agreed to continue discussions, showing no official termination of negotiations by Iran.
Jul 1 2026
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 7 drops to 2%12%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect, lower-level technical talks in Doha through mediators, focusing on frozen assets and the Strait of Hormuz, indicating ongoing negotiation efforts without official withdrawal.
Jun 29 2026
Iran denies scheduling talks with US amid ongoing tensions
July 7 drops to 3%11%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated no negotiation meetings with the US were scheduled in the coming days, emphasizing that technical talks in Qatar were unrelated to US officials. This indicated a pause but not a termination of negotiations, contributing to market price declines.
Jun 29 2026
Iran denies plans for technical talks with US, prioritizes MoU implementation
On June 29, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated Iran's priority was ensuring MoU implementation and denied scheduled technical talks with the US that week, signaling reluctance but not official withdrawal from negotiations.
Jun 28 2026
Iranian officials assert control over Strait of Hormuz, warn against US violations of MoU
July 31 rises to 29%2%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Iran is solely responsible for managing the Strait of Hormuz under the MoU, rejecting US interpretations. Iran threatened to suspend negotiations if the US challenged Iranian sovereignty, increasing tensions but not ending talks.
Jun 27 2026
Iran condemns Israeli military actions in Lebanon, threatens to halt diplomatic processes
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Iranian state media and officials criticized Israeli military operations in Lebanon as violations of the MoU and warned that US strikes on Iran could lead to a complete halt of all diplomatic processes, including negotiations. This increased market uncertainty but did not constitute an official withdrawal announcement.
Jun 26 2026
Iran threatens to halt all diplomatic processes after US strikes
July 31 rises to 27%1%
On June 26-27, Iran's IRGC Navy stated that US strikes violated the ceasefire and warned of a complete halt to diplomatic processes. Despite this threat, Iran did not officially announce withdrawal from negotiations, leading to market fluctuations but no definitive resolution.
Jun 22 2026
US-Iran talks in Switzerland end with roadmap agreed, technical talks to continue
July 31 plunges to 16%29%
Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan announced that US and Iranian officials concluded high-level talks in Switzerland with an agreed roadmap for a lasting deal within 60 days, but technical negotiations were to continue. This reduced the market's perceived likelihood of Iran withdrawing from the MoU negotiations.
Jun 22 2026
US and Iran hold high-level talks in Switzerland to advance peace deal
July 31 plunges to 16%29%
On June 21-22, 2026, US and Iranian officials met in Switzerland for direct talks following the June 17 MoU signing, discussing nuclear, sanctions, and dispute resolution. This engagement indicated Iran's continued participation in negotiations, causing a sharp drop in the market's probability of withdrawal.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.Iran and the United States signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for technical negotiations on a final agreement covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional ceasefires including Lebanon. As of June 21–22, talks in Switzerland have focused on sequencing, with Iranian negotiators insisting that clauses on Lebanese ceasefire, asset releases, and naval de-escalation must be implemented before nuclear discussions advance. Iranian officials temporarily withdrew from sessions in protest of U.S. statements before returning, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue facilitating working groups. These frictions over implementation timelines and leverage points in the MOU directly shape trader assessments of any near-term Iranian announcement of withdrawal from the process.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
Iran and the United States signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for technical negotiations on a final agreement covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional ceasefires including Lebanon. As of June 21–22, talks in Switzerland have focused on sequencing, with Iranian negotiators insisting that clauses on Lebanese ceasefire, asset releases, and naval de-escalation must be implemented before nuclear discussions advance. Iranian officials temporarily withdrew from sessions in protest of U.S. statements before returning, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue facilitating working groups. These frictions over implementation timelines and leverage points in the MOU directly shape trader assessments of any near-term Iranian announcement of withdrawal from the process.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Jul 2 2026
US and Iran agree to continue discussions after Doha talks
On July 2, 2026, following indirect talks in Doha, US and Iranian negotiators separately met with mediators and agreed to continue discussions, showing no official termination of negotiations by Iran.
Jul 1 2026
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 7 drops to 2%12%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect, lower-level technical talks in Doha through mediators, focusing on frozen assets and the Strait of Hormuz, indicating ongoing negotiation efforts without official withdrawal.
Jun 29 2026
Iran denies scheduling talks with US amid ongoing tensions
July 7 drops to 3%11%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated no negotiation meetings with the US were scheduled in the coming days, emphasizing that technical talks in Qatar were unrelated to US officials. This indicated a pause but not a termination of negotiations, contributing to market price declines.
Jun 29 2026
Iran denies plans for technical talks with US, prioritizes MoU implementation
On June 29, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated Iran's priority was ensuring MoU implementation and denied scheduled technical talks with the US that week, signaling reluctance but not official withdrawal from negotiations.
Jun 28 2026
Iranian officials assert control over Strait of Hormuz, warn against US violations of MoU
July 31 rises to 29%2%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Iran is solely responsible for managing the Strait of Hormuz under the MoU, rejecting US interpretations. Iran threatened to suspend negotiations if the US challenged Iranian sovereignty, increasing tensions but not ending talks.
Jun 27 2026
Iran condemns Israeli military actions in Lebanon, threatens to halt diplomatic processes
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Iranian state media and officials criticized Israeli military operations in Lebanon as violations of the MoU and warned that US strikes on Iran could lead to a complete halt of all diplomatic processes, including negotiations. This increased market uncertainty but did not constitute an official withdrawal announcement.
Jun 26 2026
Iran threatens to halt all diplomatic processes after US strikes
July 31 rises to 27%1%
On June 26-27, Iran's IRGC Navy stated that US strikes violated the ceasefire and warned of a complete halt to diplomatic processes. Despite this threat, Iran did not officially announce withdrawal from negotiations, leading to market fluctuations but no definitive resolution.
Jun 22 2026
US-Iran talks in Switzerland end with roadmap agreed, technical talks to continue
July 31 plunges to 16%29%
Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan announced that US and Iranian officials concluded high-level talks in Switzerland with an agreed roadmap for a lasting deal within 60 days, but technical negotiations were to continue. This reduced the market's perceived likelihood of Iran withdrawing from the MoU negotiations.
Jun 22 2026
US and Iran hold high-level talks in Switzerland to advance peace deal
July 31 plunges to 16%29%
On June 21-22, 2026, US and Iranian officials met in Switzerland for direct talks following the June 17 MoU signing, discussing nuclear, sanctions, and dispute resolution. This engagement indicated Iran's continued participation in negotiations, causing a sharp drop in the market's probability of withdrawal.
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Domande frequenti
"Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 4 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "July 31" a 11%, seguito da "July 7" a 3%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 11¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 11% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" ha generato $905.3K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jun 22, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?", esplora i 4 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
L'attuale favorito per "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" è "July 31" a 11%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 11% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "July 7" a 3%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.
Le regole di risoluzione per "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $905.3K scambiati su "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 11¢ per "July 31" nel mercato "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 11% che "July 31" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 11¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 89¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" è programmato per la risoluzione il o intorno al Jul 31, 2026. Questo significa che il trading rimarrà aperto e le quote continueranno a cambiare man mano che emergono nuove informazioni fino a quella data. La tempistica esatta di risoluzione dipende da quando il risultato ufficiale diventa disponibile, come indicato nella sezione "Regole" su questa pagina.
Il mercato "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" ha una comunità attiva di 21 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
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Domande frequenti