Recent U.S.-brokered direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, including a third round concluded on May 15, 2026, have produced a 45-day extension of the fragile April cessation of hostilities. Israeli officials continue to condition any broader accord on the phased disarmament of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of its forces north of the Litani River, while Lebanese representatives prioritize an immediate halt to Israeli operations, full territorial sovereignty, and reconstruction aid. Hezbollah has rejected participation in the talks and signaled it will not endorse a permanent peace agreement or normalization with Israel. These diplomatic steps follow repeated ceasefire violations by both sides and build on the November 2024 framework that failed to achieve lasting security. Upcoming sessions will test whether the extended truce can evolve into concrete disarmament milestones or border demarcation progress before the window closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
$173,939 Vol.
31 mag 2026
May 31
2%
$173,939 Vol.
May 31
$96,857 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S.-brokered direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, including a third round concluded on May 15, 2026, have produced a 45-day extension of the fragile April cessation of hostilities. Israeli officials continue to condition any broader accord on the phased disarmament of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of its forces north of the Litani River, while Lebanese representatives prioritize an immediate halt to Israeli operations, full territorial sovereignty, and reconstruction aid. Hezbollah has rejected participation in the talks and signaled it will not endorse a permanent peace agreement or normalization with Israel. These diplomatic steps follow repeated ceasefire violations by both sides and build on the November 2024 framework that failed to achieve lasting security. Upcoming sessions will test whether the extended truce can evolve into concrete disarmament milestones or border demarcation progress before the window closes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Volume
$173,939Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S.-brokered direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, including a third round concluded on May 15, 2026, have produced a 45-day extension of the fragile April cessation of hostilities. Israeli officials continue to condition any broader accord on the phased disarmament of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of its forces north of the Litani River, while Lebanese representatives prioritize an immediate halt to Israeli operations, full territorial sovereignty, and reconstruction aid. Hezbollah has rejected participation in the talks and signaled it will not endorse a permanent peace agreement or normalization with Israel. These diplomatic steps follow repeated ceasefire violations by both sides and build on the November 2024 framework that failed to achieve lasting security. Upcoming sessions will test whether the extended truce can evolve into concrete disarmament milestones or border demarcation progress before the window closes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,939Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-brokered direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, including a third round concluded on May 15, 2026, have produced a 45-day extension of the fragile April cessation of hostilities. Israeli officials continue to condition any broader accord on the phased disarmament of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of its forces north of the Litani River, while Lebanese representatives prioritize an immediate halt to Israeli operations, full territorial sovereignty, and reconstruction aid. Hezbollah has rejected participation in the talks and signaled it will not endorse a permanent peace agreement or normalization with Israel. These diplomatic steps follow repeated ceasefire violations by both sides and build on the November 2024 framework that failed to achieve lasting security. Upcoming sessions will test whether the extended truce can evolve into concrete disarmament milestones or border demarcation progress before the window closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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