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Politica·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politica·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Petro - Colombia President 40%

Starmer - UK PM 32%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.4%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 1.9%

Polymarket

$380,024 Vol.

Petro - Colombia President 40%

Starmer - UK PM 32%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.4%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 1.9%

Polymarket

$380,024 Vol.

Petro - Colombia President

$21,199 Vol.

40%

Starmer - UK PM

$24,156 Vol.

32%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$12,588 Vol.

9%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$21,937 Vol.

2%

None before 2027

$25,432 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$16,292 Vol.

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,759 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$17,269 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$16,254 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,897 Vol.

1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,336 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$14,148 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,436 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,854 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,881 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,296 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$12,306 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,368 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,988 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,813 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,482 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,647 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,519 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,382 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The tight contest between Starmer and Petro as frontrunners reflects immediate domestic pressures each faces in maintaining office through 2026. Starmer, as UK Prime Minister, contends with parliamentary dynamics, coalition strains, and polling trends that could trigger an early government change or leadership transition. Petro in Colombia encounters similar institutional resistance and approval challenges ahead of the next electoral cycle, creating comparable uncertainty about completing a full term. Lower-priced outcomes for figures like Díaz-Canel or long-serving leaders such as Erdoğan and Xi highlight structural barriers including term structures and party control that reduce near-term exit risks. Scheduled votes, legislative sessions, and public opinion shifts over the coming months remain key variables that could widen separations among these probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$380,024
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The tight contest between Starmer and Petro as frontrunners reflects immediate domestic pressures each faces in maintaining office through 2026. Starmer, as UK Prime Minister, contends with parliamentary dynamics, coalition strains, and polling trends that could trigger an early government change or leadership transition. Petro in Colombia encounters similar institutional resistance and approval challenges ahead of the next electoral cycle, creating comparable uncertainty about completing a full term. Lower-priced outcomes for figures like Díaz-Canel or long-serving leaders such as Erdoğan and Xi highlight structural barriers including term structures and party control that reduce near-term exit risks. Scheduled votes, legislative sessions, and public opinion shifts over the coming months remain key variables that could widen separations among these probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$380,024
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Domande frequenti

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 24 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Petro - Colombia President" a 40%, seguito da "Starmer - UK PM" a 32%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 40¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 40% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ha generato $380K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 27, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)", esplora i 24 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" è "Petro - Colombia President" a 40%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 40% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Starmer - UK PM" a 32%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.