Traders assign an 88% implied probability to a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate increase at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement because inflation remains above the 1-3% target band, with headline readings having peaked near 3.9% in the June quarter amid energy cost pressures and firm pricing behavior. The July 25 basis point hike to 2.50%—the first in three years—signaled a hawkish shift, with the RBNZ noting further tightening likely as spare capacity narrows and the economy recovers. Recent data showing resilient activity and elevated inflation expectations reinforce the market-implied path toward higher official cash rates, while the slim 12% chance of no change reflects data-dependent risks around medium-term inflation dynamics. The next key release is the September statement itself.