President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with other nations prompted the Polymarket on U.S. explosive testing timelines, yet no such test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. Technical assessments indicate that resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation, including site readiness, regulatory compliance, and safety protocols, with full timelines potentially extending further due to environmental and legal factors. Congressional oversight of the stockpile stewardship program and NNSA budget requests continue to emphasize non-explosive methods for maintaining warhead reliability. Low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026 reflect these barriers alongside the absence of confirmed policy shifts or scheduled activities that would accelerate an actual detonation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$770,068 Vol.
29 set 2026
30 settembre 2026
1%
31 dicembre 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
30 settembre 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 dicembre 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with other nations prompted the Polymarket on U.S. explosive testing timelines, yet no such test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. Technical assessments indicate that resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation, including site readiness, regulatory compliance, and safety protocols, with full timelines potentially extending further due to environmental and legal factors. Congressional oversight of the stockpile stewardship program and NNSA budget requests continue to emphasize non-explosive methods for maintaining warhead reliability. Low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026 reflect these barriers alongside the absence of confirmed policy shifts or scheduled activities that would accelerate an actual detonation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$770,068Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with other nations prompted the Polymarket on U.S. explosive testing timelines, yet no such test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. Technical assessments indicate that resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation, including site readiness, regulatory compliance, and safety protocols, with full timelines potentially extending further due to environmental and legal factors. Congressional oversight of the stockpile stewardship program and NNSA budget requests continue to emphasize non-explosive methods for maintaining warhead reliability. Low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026 reflect these barriers alongside the absence of confirmed policy shifts or scheduled activities that would accelerate an actual detonation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$770,068Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with other nations prompted the Polymarket on U.S. explosive testing timelines, yet no such test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. Technical assessments indicate that resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation, including site readiness, regulatory compliance, and safety protocols, with full timelines potentially extending further due to environmental and legal factors. Congressional oversight of the stockpile stewardship program and NNSA budget requests continue to emphasize non-explosive methods for maintaining warhead reliability. Low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026 reflect these barriers alongside the absence of confirmed policy shifts or scheduled activities that would accelerate an actual detonation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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