President Donald Trump’s November 12 remarks that he wants to “get Cuba done” before leaving office in 2029 and would “certainly consider” a short military operation have become the dominant driver of trader attention. The comments follow months of intensified U.S. sanctions on Cuban oil tankers, shipping networks, and additional economic sectors, plus an ongoing blockade that began after the January 2025 removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose family is Cuban, has been publicly positioned to lead regime-change efforts. Recent midterm losses for Republicans and continued U.S. military commitments elsewhere have raised questions about operational feasibility and congressional support. Havana maintains back-channel contacts with Washington while rejecting interference and preparing defensive exercises. No kinetic U.S. action has occurred, and markets continue to price low probabilities for near-term military intervention.