The upcoming first-round vote on May 24–25 positions center-left candidate Andrea Martella as the clear frontrunner in the Venice mayoral race, with traders assigning him an 84.5 percent implied probability based on his broad coalition backing from the PD, M5S, and allied parties. As Veneto PD coordinator and sitting senator, Martella has emphasized priorities such as special-city status, housing affordability, and tourism management during recent public forums. Center-right contender Simone Venturini, the 38-year-old incumbent councillor, holds the remaining 15.5 percent amid efforts to retain the post-Brugnaro majority. Minor candidates including economist Michele Boldrin and independents Pierangelo Del Zotto and Giovanni Andrea Martini register under 0.5 percent each, reflecting limited coalition support and polling trends that favor the two leading blocs in Italian municipal contests. A potential runoff on June 7–8 could still alter the outcome if no candidate secures an outright majority.