Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner dominates the Virginia Democratic Senate primary market at 99.3% implied probability after emerging as the sole qualified candidate for the August 4 ballot, following his formal filing in March 2026 and challengers like Jason Reynolds failing to submit sufficient petitions. This unopposed status grants Warner the nomination by default, bolstered by his strong fundraising, high approval ratings—including a May poll showing him up 25 points in general election matchups—and incumbency advantages in a state primary with low challenger viability. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty absent a late withdrawal, disqualification, or unprecedented court ruling adding an opponent before early voting begins June 19.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$29,472 Vol.
$29,472 Vol.
16 giu 2026
Mark Warner
99%
Jason Reynolds
<1%
$29,472 Vol.
$29,472 Vol.
16 giu 2026
Mark Warner
$14,690 Vol.
99%
Jason Reynolds
$14,783 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.
If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner dominates the Virginia Democratic Senate primary market at 99.3% implied probability after emerging as the sole qualified candidate for the August 4 ballot, following his formal filing in March 2026 and challengers like Jason Reynolds failing to submit sufficient petitions. This unopposed status grants Warner the nomination by default, bolstered by his strong fundraising, high approval ratings—including a May poll showing him up 25 points in general election matchups—and incumbency advantages in a state primary with low challenger viability. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty absent a late withdrawal, disqualification, or unprecedented court ruling adding an opponent before early voting begins June 19.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.
If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercato aperto: Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$29,472Data di fine
16 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.
If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner dominates the Virginia Democratic Senate primary market at 99.3% implied probability after emerging as the sole qualified candidate for the August 4 ballot, following his formal filing in March 2026 and challengers like Jason Reynolds failing to submit sufficient petitions. This unopposed status grants Warner the nomination by default, bolstered by his strong fundraising, high approval ratings—including a May poll showing him up 25 points in general election matchups—and incumbency advantages in a state primary with low challenger viability. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty absent a late withdrawal, disqualification, or unprecedented court ruling adding an opponent before early voting begins June 19.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.
If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$29,472Data di fine
16 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner dominates the Virginia Democratic Senate primary market at 99.3% implied probability after emerging as the sole qualified candidate for the August 4 ballot, following his formal filing in March 2026 and challengers like Jason Reynolds failing to submit sufficient petitions. This unopposed status grants Warner the nomination by default, bolstered by his strong fundraising, high approval ratings—including a May poll showing him up 25 points in general election matchups—and incumbency advantages in a state primary with low challenger viability. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty absent a late withdrawal, disqualification, or unprecedented court ruling adding an opponent before early voting begins June 19.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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