Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's 81% implied probability in the NY-04 Democratic primary stems from her overwhelming fundraising advantage—over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand compared to challengers' under $30,000 each—paired with endorsement from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs and incumbency edge in the low-turnout June 23 contest. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (15%), former Assemblywoman Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.3%) have criticized her January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, but their fragmented field splits progressive opposition votes. No public polls exist, leaving trader consensus favoring Gillen's established campaign infrastructure amid recent town halls in Freeport.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLaura Gillen 81%
Nicholas Sciretta 15%
Taylor Darling 4.0%
Gian Jones <1%
$18,689 Vol.
$18,689 Vol.
23 giu 2026
Laura Gillen
81%
Nicholas Sciretta
15%
Taylor Darling
4%
Gian Jones
<1%
Laura Gillen 81%
Nicholas Sciretta 15%
Taylor Darling 4.0%
Gian Jones <1%
$18,689 Vol.
$18,689 Vol.
23 giu 2026
Laura Gillen
$6,213 Vol.
81%
Nicholas Sciretta
$8,734 Vol.
15%
Taylor Darling
$2,106 Vol.
4%
Gian Jones
$1,636 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's 81% implied probability in the NY-04 Democratic primary stems from her overwhelming fundraising advantage—over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand compared to challengers' under $30,000 each—paired with endorsement from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs and incumbency edge in the low-turnout June 23 contest. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (15%), former Assemblywoman Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.3%) have criticized her January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, but their fragmented field splits progressive opposition votes. No public polls exist, leaving trader consensus favoring Gillen's established campaign infrastructure amid recent town halls in Freeport.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercato aperto: Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET
Volume
$18,689Data di fine
23 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's 81% implied probability in the NY-04 Democratic primary stems from her overwhelming fundraising advantage—over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand compared to challengers' under $30,000 each—paired with endorsement from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs and incumbency edge in the low-turnout June 23 contest. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (15%), former Assemblywoman Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.3%) have criticized her January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, but their fragmented field splits progressive opposition votes. No public polls exist, leaving trader consensus favoring Gillen's established campaign infrastructure amid recent town halls in Freeport.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,689Data di fine
23 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's 81% implied probability in the NY-04 Democratic primary stems from her overwhelming fundraising advantage—over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand compared to challengers' under $30,000 each—paired with endorsement from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs and incumbency edge in the low-turnout June 23 contest. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (15%), former Assemblywoman Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.3%) have criticized her January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, but their fragmented field splits progressive opposition votes. No public polls exist, leaving trader consensus favoring Gillen's established campaign infrastructure amid recent town halls in Freeport.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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