Surging U.S. gasoline prices, now averaging above $4.50 per gallon nationally as of mid-May 2026, reflect acute supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and resulting constrictions in Strait of Hormuz crude shipments. Elevated crude oil benchmarks, combined with falling inventories and refinery maintenance, have pushed retail levels to their highest since 2022, outpacing earlier EIA forecasts that anticipated declines for the year. Seasonal summer driving demand is amplifying these pressures just as the end-of-May resolution window approaches, while any de-escalation in Middle East tensions or inventory builds could ease near-term upside. Traders monitoring FOMC signals and weekly EIA reports will watch for shifts in energy risk premiums that directly influence the implied probability of further spikes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$140,059 Vol.
31 mag 2026
↑ $5.00
14%
↑ $4.70
52%
↑ $4.60
89%
↓ $4.25
15%
↓ $4.20
10%
↓ $4.10
13%
↓ $4.00
5%
↓ $3.75
3%
↓ $3.50
2%
$140,059 Vol.
↑ $5.00
$21,513 Vol.
14%
↑ $4.70
$11,417 Vol.
52%
↑ $4.60
$11,515 Vol.
89%
↓ $4.25
$2,557 Vol.
15%
↓ $4.20
$1,868 Vol.
10%
↓ $4.10
$796 Vol.
13%
↓ $4.00
$884 Vol.
5%
↓ $3.75
$1,486 Vol.
3%
↓ $3.50
$6,945 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Surging U.S. gasoline prices, now averaging above $4.50 per gallon nationally as of mid-May 2026, reflect acute supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and resulting constrictions in Strait of Hormuz crude shipments. Elevated crude oil benchmarks, combined with falling inventories and refinery maintenance, have pushed retail levels to their highest since 2022, outpacing earlier EIA forecasts that anticipated declines for the year. Seasonal summer driving demand is amplifying these pressures just as the end-of-May resolution window approaches, while any de-escalation in Middle East tensions or inventory builds could ease near-term upside. Traders monitoring FOMC signals and weekly EIA reports will watch for shifts in energy risk premiums that directly influence the implied probability of further spikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volume
$140,059Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Surging U.S. gasoline prices, now averaging above $4.50 per gallon nationally as of mid-May 2026, reflect acute supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and resulting constrictions in Strait of Hormuz crude shipments. Elevated crude oil benchmarks, combined with falling inventories and refinery maintenance, have pushed retail levels to their highest since 2022, outpacing earlier EIA forecasts that anticipated declines for the year. Seasonal summer driving demand is amplifying these pressures just as the end-of-May resolution window approaches, while any de-escalation in Middle East tensions or inventory builds could ease near-term upside. Traders monitoring FOMC signals and weekly EIA reports will watch for shifts in energy risk premiums that directly influence the implied probability of further spikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$140,059Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Surging U.S. gasoline prices, now averaging above $4.50 per gallon nationally as of mid-May 2026, reflect acute supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and resulting constrictions in Strait of Hormuz crude shipments. Elevated crude oil benchmarks, combined with falling inventories and refinery maintenance, have pushed retail levels to their highest since 2022, outpacing earlier EIA forecasts that anticipated declines for the year. Seasonal summer driving demand is amplifying these pressures just as the end-of-May resolution window approaches, while any de-escalation in Middle East tensions or inventory builds could ease near-term upside. Traders monitoring FOMC signals and weekly EIA reports will watch for shifts in energy risk premiums that directly influence the implied probability of further spikes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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