Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object monitoring programs have catalogued no asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 1-megaton atmospheric explosion during 2026, underpinning the market-implied 98.3% probability of “No.” Historical impact flux data indicate megaton-scale airbursts occur only a few times per decade on average, with all recent confirmed events orders of magnitude smaller. Ongoing optical surveys, radar tracking, and Sentry risk assessments continue to show negligible cumulative probabilities for objects in this energy range. While an undetected small body discovered with very short warning could theoretically shift the outcome, current detection thresholds and statistical rarity make such a surprise highly improbable before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$116,896 Vol.
$116,896 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
2% 確率
$116,896 Vol.
$116,896 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object monitoring programs have catalogued no asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 1-megaton atmospheric explosion during 2026, underpinning the market-implied 98.3% probability of “No.” Historical impact flux data indicate megaton-scale airbursts occur only a few times per decade on average, with all recent confirmed events orders of magnitude smaller. Ongoing optical surveys, radar tracking, and Sentry risk assessments continue to show negligible cumulative probabilities for objects in this energy range. While an undetected small body discovered with very short warning could theoretically shift the outcome, current detection thresholds and statistical rarity make such a surprise highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
音量
$116,896終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object monitoring programs have catalogued no asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 1-megaton atmospheric explosion during 2026, underpinning the market-implied 98.3% probability of “No.” Historical impact flux data indicate megaton-scale airbursts occur only a few times per decade on average, with all recent confirmed events orders of magnitude smaller. Ongoing optical surveys, radar tracking, and Sentry risk assessments continue to show negligible cumulative probabilities for objects in this energy range. While an undetected small body discovered with very short warning could theoretically shift the outcome, current detection thresholds and statistical rarity make such a surprise highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$116,896終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object monitoring programs have catalogued no asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 1-megaton atmospheric explosion during 2026, underpinning the market-implied 98.3% probability of “No.” Historical impact flux data indicate megaton-scale airbursts occur only a few times per decade on average, with all recent confirmed events orders of magnitude smaller. Ongoing optical surveys, radar tracking, and Sentry risk assessments continue to show negligible cumulative probabilities for objects in this energy range. While an undetected small body discovered with very short warning could theoretically shift the outcome, current detection thresholds and statistical rarity make such a surprise highly improbable before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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