Google's 74% implied probability for the #3 ranking on arena.ai's Text Arena (style control on) by September 30 stems from its recent Gemini model iterations and competitive benchmark gains, which traders see as likely to secure that exact position amid rapid iteration across labs. Multiple contenders clustered near 50% reflect tight competition where small leaderboard shifts from new releases or fine-tuning could alter the third slot, while Meta's lower 18.5% odds align with slower demonstrated progress on style-controllable text outputs relative to leaders. With resolution just two weeks away, upcoming model drops or arena updates represent the main swing factors, underscoring how real-capital trading aggregates nuanced assessments of current LLM capabilities rather than guarantees.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Google 75%
Meta 19%
ムーンショット 2.6%
OpenAI 2.6%
$110,115 Vol.
$110,115 Vol.
2026/09/30
75%
Meta
19%
ムーンショット
3%
OpenAI
3%
アリババ
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
1%
アンソロピック
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
テンセント
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
Google 75%
Meta 19%
ムーンショット 2.6%
OpenAI 2.6%
$110,115 Vol.
$110,115 Vol.
2026/09/30
$19,853 Vol.
75%
Meta
$27,808 Vol.
19%
ムーンショット
$3,605 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$4,802 Vol.
3%
アリババ
$9,756 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,418 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,925 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,975 Vol.
1%
アンソロピック
$21,137 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,312 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$2,672 Vol.
<1%
テンセント
$1,856 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,149 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,514 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,992 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$799 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$1,570 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$480 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$659 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$700 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's 74% implied probability for the #3 ranking on arena.ai's Text Arena (style control on) by September 30 stems from its recent Gemini model iterations and competitive benchmark gains, which traders see as likely to secure that exact position amid rapid iteration across labs. Multiple contenders clustered near 50% reflect tight competition where small leaderboard shifts from new releases or fine-tuning could alter the third slot, while Meta's lower 18.5% odds align with slower demonstrated progress on style-controllable text outputs relative to leaders. With resolution just two weeks away, upcoming model drops or arena updates represent the main swing factors, underscoring how real-capital trading aggregates nuanced assessments of current LLM capabilities rather than guarantees.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
音量
$110,115終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's 74% implied probability for the #3 ranking on arena.ai's Text Arena (style control on) by September 30 stems from its recent Gemini model iterations and competitive benchmark gains, which traders see as likely to secure that exact position amid rapid iteration across labs. Multiple contenders clustered near 50% reflect tight competition where small leaderboard shifts from new releases or fine-tuning could alter the third slot, while Meta's lower 18.5% odds align with slower demonstrated progress on style-controllable text outputs relative to leaders. With resolution just two weeks away, upcoming model drops or arena updates represent the main swing factors, underscoring how real-capital trading aggregates nuanced assessments of current LLM capabilities rather than guarantees.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$110,115終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETGoogle's 74% implied probability for the #3 ranking on arena.ai's Text Arena (style control on) by September 30 stems from its recent Gemini model iterations and competitive benchmark gains, which traders see as likely to secure that exact position amid rapid iteration across labs. Multiple contenders clustered near 50% reflect tight competition where small leaderboard shifts from new releases or fine-tuning could alter the third slot, while Meta's lower 18.5% odds align with slower demonstrated progress on style-controllable text outputs relative to leaders. With resolution just two weeks away, upcoming model drops or arena updates represent the main swing factors, underscoring how real-capital trading aggregates nuanced assessments of current LLM capabilities rather than guarantees.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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