Meta’s commanding 90.4% market-implied probability for third-best AI lab by end of September stems from its consistent frontier positioning through the Muse Spark proprietary series and Llama 4 open-weight releases, which deliver competitive benchmark scores in coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks while powering broad ecosystem adoption. With OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 occupying the top two spots on most independent leaderboards as of mid-September, traders view Meta’s sustained output, developer reach, and absence of recent disruptions as locking in bronze. Realistic challenges remain limited but include an unexpected late-month capability jump from xAI or a Chinese lab that reorders the Epoch AI or Artificial Analysis indices before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Meta 90.3%
Google 8%
Alibaba 1.5%
Moonshot 1.4%
$93,270 Vol.
$93,270 Vol.
2026/09/30
Meta
90%
8%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Baidu
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 90.3%
Google 8%
Alibaba 1.5%
Moonshot 1.4%
$93,270 Vol.
$93,270 Vol.
2026/09/30
Meta
$12,730 Vol.
90%
$40,693 Vol.
8%
Alibaba
$9,480 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$3,257 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,997 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,307 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$5,892 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$2,055 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,441 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,445 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,209 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$997 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$981 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$669 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$970 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$421 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta’s commanding 90.4% market-implied probability for third-best AI lab by end of September stems from its consistent frontier positioning through the Muse Spark proprietary series and Llama 4 open-weight releases, which deliver competitive benchmark scores in coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks while powering broad ecosystem adoption. With OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 occupying the top two spots on most independent leaderboards as of mid-September, traders view Meta’s sustained output, developer reach, and absence of recent disruptions as locking in bronze. Realistic challenges remain limited but include an unexpected late-month capability jump from xAI or a Chinese lab that reorders the Epoch AI or Artificial Analysis indices before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
音量
$93,270終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta’s commanding 90.4% market-implied probability for third-best AI lab by end of September stems from its consistent frontier positioning through the Muse Spark proprietary series and Llama 4 open-weight releases, which deliver competitive benchmark scores in coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks while powering broad ecosystem adoption. With OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 occupying the top two spots on most independent leaderboards as of mid-September, traders view Meta’s sustained output, developer reach, and absence of recent disruptions as locking in bronze. Realistic challenges remain limited but include an unexpected late-month capability jump from xAI or a Chinese lab that reorders the Epoch AI or Artificial Analysis indices before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$93,270終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETMeta’s commanding 90.4% market-implied probability for third-best AI lab by end of September stems from its consistent frontier positioning through the Muse Spark proprietary series and Llama 4 open-weight releases, which deliver competitive benchmark scores in coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks while powering broad ecosystem adoption. With OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 occupying the top two spots on most independent leaderboards as of mid-September, traders view Meta’s sustained output, developer reach, and absence of recent disruptions as locking in bronze. Realistic challenges remain limited but include an unexpected late-month capability jump from xAI or a Chinese lab that reorders the Epoch AI or Artificial Analysis indices before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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