Multiple Chinese and Western AI labs sit in a tight contest for third place on Text Arena’s math leaderboard by month-end, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% for several contenders and Z.ai holding the highest named probability at 43.5%. Recent leaderboard snapshots show Moonshot, Z.ai, Xiaomi, and DeepSeek models clustered within narrow score bands on mathematical reasoning tasks, driven by incremental gains in chain-of-thought prompting, specialized math corpora, and harness-based tool use. Western entries such as Google’s Gemini variants and OpenAI models trail slightly but remain competitive through strong generalization on complex problem sets. With resolution days away, any late-September model update or fine-tuning run could reorder the middle ranks before the snapshot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Z.ai 43.5%
Google 20%
アリババ 18%
Meta 6.0%
$64,848 Vol.
$64,848 Vol.

Z.ai
44%

20%

アリババ
18%

Meta
6%

OpenAI
4%

ムーンショット
3%

SpaceXAI
2%

小米(シャオミ)
1%

DeepSeek
1%

MiniMax
1%

Anthropic
1%

バイドゥ
<1%

ミストラル
<1%

テンセント
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Amazon
<1%

バイトダンス
<1%

StepFun
<1%
Z.ai 43.5%
Google 20%
アリババ 18%
Meta 6.0%
$64,848 Vol.
$64,848 Vol.

Z.ai
44%

20%

アリババ
18%

Meta
6%

OpenAI
4%

ムーンショット
3%

SpaceXAI
2%

小米(シャオミ)
1%

DeepSeek
1%

MiniMax
1%

Anthropic
1%

バイドゥ
<1%

ミストラル
<1%

テンセント
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Amazon
<1%

バイトダンス
<1%

StepFun
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Multiple Chinese and Western AI labs sit in a tight contest for third place on Text Arena’s math leaderboard by month-end, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% for several contenders and Z.ai holding the highest named probability at 43.5%. Recent leaderboard snapshots show Moonshot, Z.ai, Xiaomi, and DeepSeek models clustered within narrow score bands on mathematical reasoning tasks, driven by incremental gains in chain-of-thought prompting, specialized math corpora, and harness-based tool use. Western entries such as Google’s Gemini variants and OpenAI models trail slightly but remain competitive through strong generalization on complex problem sets. With resolution days away, any late-September model update or fine-tuning run could reorder the middle ranks before the snapshot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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