The elevated 93.8% implied probability for no removal reflects Brazil’s stringent constitutional requirements for impeaching STF justices, including initiation by the prosecutor general and approval by a two-thirds Senate majority. Recent congressional inquiries, including a CPI report recommending proceedings against justices Alexandre de Moraes, Gilmar Mendes, and Dias Toffoli over alleged ties to the Banco Master case, have generated petitions but produced no committee review or floor vote as of mid-May 2026. A December 2025 injunction by Justice Mendes further restricted impeachment procedures under Law 1.079/50, and Senate leadership has declined to advance cases amid broader legislative priorities. Historical precedent shows no STF justice has ever been removed through this process, reinforcing trader assessments that structural and political thresholds will likely remain unbreached through 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$70,813 Vol.
$70,813 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$70,813 Vol.
$70,813 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The elevated 93.8% implied probability for no removal reflects Brazil’s stringent constitutional requirements for impeaching STF justices, including initiation by the prosecutor general and approval by a two-thirds Senate majority. Recent congressional inquiries, including a CPI report recommending proceedings against justices Alexandre de Moraes, Gilmar Mendes, and Dias Toffoli over alleged ties to the Banco Master case, have generated petitions but produced no committee review or floor vote as of mid-May 2026. A December 2025 injunction by Justice Mendes further restricted impeachment procedures under Law 1.079/50, and Senate leadership has declined to advance cases amid broader legislative priorities. Historical precedent shows no STF justice has ever been removed through this process, reinforcing trader assessments that structural and political thresholds will likely remain unbreached through 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
音量
$70,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The elevated 93.8% implied probability for no removal reflects Brazil’s stringent constitutional requirements for impeaching STF justices, including initiation by the prosecutor general and approval by a two-thirds Senate majority. Recent congressional inquiries, including a CPI report recommending proceedings against justices Alexandre de Moraes, Gilmar Mendes, and Dias Toffoli over alleged ties to the Banco Master case, have generated petitions but produced no committee review or floor vote as of mid-May 2026. A December 2025 injunction by Justice Mendes further restricted impeachment procedures under Law 1.079/50, and Senate leadership has declined to advance cases amid broader legislative priorities. Historical precedent shows no STF justice has ever been removed through this process, reinforcing trader assessments that structural and political thresholds will likely remain unbreached through 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$70,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The elevated 93.8% implied probability for no removal reflects Brazil’s stringent constitutional requirements for impeaching STF justices, including initiation by the prosecutor general and approval by a two-thirds Senate majority. Recent congressional inquiries, including a CPI report recommending proceedings against justices Alexandre de Moraes, Gilmar Mendes, and Dias Toffoli over alleged ties to the Banco Master case, have generated petitions but produced no committee review or floor vote as of mid-May 2026. A December 2025 injunction by Justice Mendes further restricted impeachment procedures under Law 1.079/50, and Senate leadership has declined to advance cases amid broader legislative priorities. Historical precedent shows no STF justice has ever been removed through this process, reinforcing trader assessments that structural and political thresholds will likely remain unbreached through 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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