Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite dozens of petitions, including repeated filings against Alexandre de Moraes. The process requires a two-thirds Senate majority under Law 1.079/1950, with the chamber president controlling admissibility; recent STF rulings have further raised thresholds for opening proceedings and automatic suspension. Lula-aligned congressional majorities and Senate leadership have consistently shelved complaints, creating a structural firewall through August 2026. Trader consensus at 96.6% for “No” reflects these entrenched procedural and political barriers. Plausible shifts before 2027 remain limited to an unexpected post-election Senate realignment enabling rapid advancement of an existing petition or an extraordinary scandal forcing cross-aisle support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite dozens of petitions, including repeated filings against Alexandre de Moraes. The process requires a two-thirds Senate majority under Law 1.079/1950, with the chamber president controlling admissibility; recent STF rulings have further raised thresholds for opening proceedings and automatic suspension. Lula-aligned congressional majorities and Senate leadership have consistently shelved complaints, creating a structural firewall through August 2026. Trader consensus at 96.6% for “No” reflects these entrenched procedural and political barriers. Plausible shifts before 2027 remain limited to an unexpected post-election Senate realignment enabling rapid advancement of an existing petition or an extraordinary scandal forcing cross-aisle support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
音量
$83,546終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite dozens of petitions, including repeated filings against Alexandre de Moraes. The process requires a two-thirds Senate majority under Law 1.079/1950, with the chamber president controlling admissibility; recent STF rulings have further raised thresholds for opening proceedings and automatic suspension. Lula-aligned congressional majorities and Senate leadership have consistently shelved complaints, creating a structural firewall through August 2026. Trader consensus at 96.6% for “No” reflects these entrenched procedural and political barriers. Plausible shifts before 2027 remain limited to an unexpected post-election Senate realignment enabling rapid advancement of an existing petition or an extraordinary scandal forcing cross-aisle support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$83,546終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite dozens of petitions, including repeated filings against Alexandre de Moraes. The process requires a two-thirds Senate majority under Law 1.079/1950, with the chamber president controlling admissibility; recent STF rulings have further raised thresholds for opening proceedings and automatic suspension. Lula-aligned congressional majorities and Senate leadership have consistently shelved complaints, creating a structural firewall through August 2026. Trader consensus at 96.6% for “No” reflects these entrenched procedural and political barriers. Plausible shifts before 2027 remain limited to an unexpected post-election Senate realignment enabling rapid advancement of an existing petition or an extraordinary scandal forcing cross-aisle support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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