Apple’s official August 26 announcement of the “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9 has anchored trader sentiment, with consistent reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and supply-chain sources indicating the company will unveil its first book-style foldable iPhone—widely expected as the iPhone Ultra—alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup. The device is described with a roughly 5.5-inch outer display opening to about 7.8 inches, titanium construction, near crease-free OLED, Touch ID in the power button, and pricing above $2,000. This marks the first major launch under incoming CEO John Ternus and represents Apple’s first new iPhone form factor in years. While manufacturing yields and final availability remain variables, the volume of aligned credible leaks and the event’s proximity support the current 74.5% implied probability for an announcement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
94% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/09
はい
94% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/09
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s official August 26 announcement of the “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9 has anchored trader sentiment, with consistent reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and supply-chain sources indicating the company will unveil its first book-style foldable iPhone—widely expected as the iPhone Ultra—alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup. The device is described with a roughly 5.5-inch outer display opening to about 7.8 inches, titanium construction, near crease-free OLED, Touch ID in the power button, and pricing above $2,000. This marks the first major launch under incoming CEO John Ternus and represents Apple’s first new iPhone form factor in years. While manufacturing yields and final availability remain variables, the volume of aligned credible leaks and the event’s proximity support the current 74.5% implied probability for an announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
音量
$55終了日
2026/09/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s official August 26 announcement of the “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9 has anchored trader sentiment, with consistent reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and supply-chain sources indicating the company will unveil its first book-style foldable iPhone—widely expected as the iPhone Ultra—alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup. The device is described with a roughly 5.5-inch outer display opening to about 7.8 inches, titanium construction, near crease-free OLED, Touch ID in the power button, and pricing above $2,000. This marks the first major launch under incoming CEO John Ternus and represents Apple’s first new iPhone form factor in years. While manufacturing yields and final availability remain variables, the volume of aligned credible leaks and the event’s proximity support the current 74.5% implied probability for an announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$55終了日
2026/09/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple’s official August 26 announcement of the “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9 has anchored trader sentiment, with consistent reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and supply-chain sources indicating the company will unveil its first book-style foldable iPhone—widely expected as the iPhone Ultra—alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup. The device is described with a roughly 5.5-inch outer display opening to about 7.8 inches, titanium construction, near crease-free OLED, Touch ID in the power button, and pricing above $2,000. This marks the first major launch under incoming CEO John Ternus and represents Apple’s first new iPhone form factor in years. While manufacturing yields and final availability remain variables, the volume of aligned credible leaks and the event’s proximity support the current 74.5% implied probability for an announcement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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