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政治·プライマリ

AZ -01共和党予選優勝者

icon for AZ -01共和党予選優勝者
政治·プライマリ

AZ -01共和党予選優勝者

ジェイ・フィーリー 72%

ジョセフ・チャプリック 25.4%

ジェイソン・デューイ 1.0%

マット・グレス <1%

Polymarket

$404,518 Vol.

ジェイ・フィーリー 72%

ジョセフ・チャプリック 25.4%

ジェイソン・デューイ 1.0%

マット・グレス <1%

Polymarket

$404,518 Vol.

ジェイ・フィーリー

$7,700 Vol.

72%

ジョセフ・チャプリック

$9,325 Vol.

25%

ジェイソン・デューイ

$3,092 Vol.

1%

マット・グレス

$48,804 Vol.

1%

ジョン・トロボー

$3,525 Vol.

<1%

カイトリン・パーリントン

$9,638 Vol.

<1%

デリック・ガレゴ

$3,766 Vol.

<1%

トッド・グラハム

$7,845 Vol.

<1%

カリ・レイク

$6,832 Vol.

<1%

ジーナ・スウォボダ

$4,561 Vol.

<1%

マーク・ブロノビッチ

$61,436 Vol.

<1%

ポール・リーブス

$222,573 Vol.

<1%

ムシェル・ウジェンティ＝リタ

$4,589 Vol.

<1%

ブランドン・サワーズ

$10,833 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 71% implied probability for the AZ-01 Republican primary on July 21, driven by his early Trump endorsement, dominant first-quarter fundraising reported mid-April, and name recognition from his NFL career, positioning him as the frontrunner in this open seat after incumbent David Schweikert's departure for governor. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik follows at 26%, bolstered by his local residency in the district, proven conservative legislative record in overlapping LD3, and full-time focus since resigning in February, appealing to grassroots voters amid criticism of Feely as an outsider. A May 5 debate between Feely and John Trobough and recent ballot finalizations have sharpened focus, but no public polls have emerged to shift the crowded field's dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$404,518
終了日
2026/08/04
マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 71% implied probability for the AZ-01 Republican primary on July 21, driven by his early Trump endorsement, dominant first-quarter fundraising reported mid-April, and name recognition from his NFL career, positioning him as the frontrunner in this open seat after incumbent David Schweikert's departure for governor. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik follows at 26%, bolstered by his local residency in the district, proven conservative legislative record in overlapping LD3, and full-time focus since resigning in February, appealing to grassroots voters amid criticism of Feely as an outsider. A May 5 debate between Feely and John Trobough and recent ballot finalizations have sharpened focus, but no public polls have emerged to shift the crowded field's dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$404,518
終了日
2026/08/04
マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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よくある質問

「AZ -01共和党予選優勝者」はPolymarket上の14個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ジェイ・フィーリー」で72%、次いで「ジョセフ・チャプリック」が25%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、72¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に72%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「AZ -01共和党予選優勝者」は$404.5Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 25, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「AZ -01共和党予選優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている14個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「AZ -01共和党予選優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ジェイ・フィーリー」で72%であり、市場がこの結果に72%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ジョセフ・チャプリック」で25%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「AZ -01共和党予選優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。