Recent national polls position Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the frontrunner for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May show Lula at 38-39 percent while Flávio registers 33-35 percent, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. Flávio’s candidacy, formally backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro in December 2025, has consolidated right-wing support following Jair’s legal disqualification. Traders appear to view this polling pattern and the absence of a stronger alternative challenger as the primary drivers behind the current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 62%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 15%
レナン・サントス 7.7%
ロメウ・ゼマ 6.9%
$3,523,676 Vol.
$3,523,676 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
62%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
15%
レナン・サントス
8%
ロメウ・ゼマ
7%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
3%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
3%
カミロ・サンタナ
2%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
1%
ロナルド・カイアド
1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 62%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 15%
レナン・サントス 7.7%
ロメウ・ゼマ 6.9%
$3,523,676 Vol.
$3,523,676 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$56,396 Vol.
62%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
$67,344 Vol.
15%
レナン・サントス
$995,940 Vol.
8%
ロメウ・ゼマ
$256,381 Vol.
7%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$72,830 Vol.
3%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$651,329 Vol.
3%
カミロ・サンタナ
$56,064 Vol.
2%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
$2,853 Vol.
1%
ロナルド・カイアド
$289,157 Vol.
1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
$123,364 Vol.
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$111,040 Vol.
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
$642,631 Vol.
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
$29,825 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
$48,401 Vol.
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
$2,260 Vol.
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
$77,363 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
$40,500 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls position Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the frontrunner for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May show Lula at 38-39 percent while Flávio registers 33-35 percent, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. Flávio’s candidacy, formally backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro in December 2025, has consolidated right-wing support following Jair’s legal disqualification. Traders appear to view this polling pattern and the absence of a stronger alternative challenger as the primary drivers behind the current market pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$3,523,676終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls position Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the frontrunner for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May show Lula at 38-39 percent while Flávio registers 33-35 percent, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. Flávio’s candidacy, formally backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro in December 2025, has consolidated right-wing support following Jair’s legal disqualification. Traders appear to view this polling pattern and the absence of a stronger alternative challenger as the primary drivers behind the current market pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$3,523,676終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent national polls position Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the frontrunner for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May show Lula at 38-39 percent while Flávio registers 33-35 percent, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. Flávio’s candidacy, formally backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro in December 2025, has consolidated right-wing support following Jair’s legal disqualification. Traders appear to view this polling pattern and the absence of a stronger alternative challenger as the primary drivers behind the current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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