PL leads trader consensus for most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, which renews 54 of 81 seats via two-per-state first-past-the-post contests, reflecting the Liberal Party’s entrenched right-leaning base, aggressive candidate recruitment across states, and expected coattails from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential bid under the PL banner. The party’s current Senate delegation and alignment with Bolsonaro-aligned voters position it ahead of centrist alternatives such as the MDB. Recent mid-2026 developments, including audio leaks involving Flávio and a brief public rift with Michelle Bolsonaro, produced only modest and temporary softening in associated polling without materially shifting Senate outlooks. Lula’s PT and other parties trail far behind in implied probabilities, underscoring the structural advantages for PL in the current electoral cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日PL 78%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB） 16.2%
UNIÃO 1.0%
PSD <1%
$293,650 Vol.
$293,650 Vol.
2026/10/04
PL
78%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB）
16%
UNIÃO
1%
PSD
1%
PT
1%
REPUBLICANOS
<1%
PP
<1%
PSDB
<1%
NOVO
<1%
PSB
<1%
ポデモス
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 78%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB） 16.2%
UNIÃO 1.0%
PSD <1%
$293,650 Vol.
$293,650 Vol.
2026/10/04
PL
$258,922 Vol.
78%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB）
$8,294 Vol.
16%
UNIÃO
$2,883 Vol.
1%
PSD
$2,658 Vol.
1%
PT
$2,953 Vol.
1%
REPUBLICANOS
$3,355 Vol.
<1%
PP
$2,465 Vol.
<1%
PSDB
$2,442 Vol.
<1%
NOVO
$2,708 Vol.
<1%
PSB
$2,304 Vol.
<1%
ポデモス
$2,615 Vol.
<1%
PDT
$2,052 Vol.
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL leads trader consensus for most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, which renews 54 of 81 seats via two-per-state first-past-the-post contests, reflecting the Liberal Party’s entrenched right-leaning base, aggressive candidate recruitment across states, and expected coattails from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential bid under the PL banner. The party’s current Senate delegation and alignment with Bolsonaro-aligned voters position it ahead of centrist alternatives such as the MDB. Recent mid-2026 developments, including audio leaks involving Flávio and a brief public rift with Michelle Bolsonaro, produced only modest and temporary softening in associated polling without materially shifting Senate outlooks. Lula’s PT and other parties trail far behind in implied probabilities, underscoring the structural advantages for PL in the current electoral cycle.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$293,650終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL leads trader consensus for most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, which renews 54 of 81 seats via two-per-state first-past-the-post contests, reflecting the Liberal Party’s entrenched right-leaning base, aggressive candidate recruitment across states, and expected coattails from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential bid under the PL banner. The party’s current Senate delegation and alignment with Bolsonaro-aligned voters position it ahead of centrist alternatives such as the MDB. Recent mid-2026 developments, including audio leaks involving Flávio and a brief public rift with Michelle Bolsonaro, produced only modest and temporary softening in associated polling without materially shifting Senate outlooks. Lula’s PT and other parties trail far behind in implied probabilities, underscoring the structural advantages for PL in the current electoral cycle.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$293,650終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL leads trader consensus for most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, which renews 54 of 81 seats via two-per-state first-past-the-post contests, reflecting the Liberal Party’s entrenched right-leaning base, aggressive candidate recruitment across states, and expected coattails from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential bid under the PL banner. The party’s current Senate delegation and alignment with Bolsonaro-aligned voters position it ahead of centrist alternatives such as the MDB. Recent mid-2026 developments, including audio leaks involving Flávio and a brief public rift with Michelle Bolsonaro, produced only modest and temporary softening in associated polling without materially shifting Senate outlooks. Lula’s PT and other parties trail far behind in implied probabilities, underscoring the structural advantages for PL in the current electoral cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問