**Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 74.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's 2026 Senate election for 54 seats on October 4, driven by the party's current status as the largest Senate bloc with recent adhesions boosting its numbers to 16 senators, alongside robust growth to 101 federal deputies following the party-switching window.** PL's edge stems from competitive candidates in key states per recent Quaest and other polls—like Michelle Bolsonaro leading in Distrito Federal and Éder Mauro contending in Pará—coupled with momentum from Flávio Bolsonaro's strong presidential showing in May Quaest and Apex surveys, where he ties or leads Lula in runoffs. MDB follows at 5.9% on centrist incumbency, while UNIÃO and PT lag amid fragmented opposition. Upcoming state-level primaries and conventions could shift dynamics in this closely watched renewal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日PL 80%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB） 4.5%
UNIÃO 3.3%
PT 2.9%
$253,885 Vol.
$253,885 Vol.
2026/10/04
PL
80%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB）
5%
UNIÃO
3%
PT
3%
PSD
2%
ポデモス
1%
REPUBLICANOS
1%
NOVO
1%
PSB
1%
PSDB
<1%
PP
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 80%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB） 4.5%
UNIÃO 3.3%
PT 2.9%
$253,885 Vol.
$253,885 Vol.
2026/10/04
PL
$242,655 Vol.
80%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB）
$966 Vol.
5%
UNIÃO
$958 Vol.
3%
PT
$1,040 Vol.
3%
PSD
$1,046 Vol.
2%
ポデモス
$1,151 Vol.
1%
REPUBLICANOS
$1,075 Vol.
1%
NOVO
$1,134 Vol.
1%
PSB
$1,058 Vol.
1%
PSDB
$1,023 Vol.
<1%
PP
$935 Vol.
<1%
PDT
$843 Vol.
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 74.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's 2026 Senate election for 54 seats on October 4, driven by the party's current status as the largest Senate bloc with recent adhesions boosting its numbers to 16 senators, alongside robust growth to 101 federal deputies following the party-switching window.** PL's edge stems from competitive candidates in key states per recent Quaest and other polls—like Michelle Bolsonaro leading in Distrito Federal and Éder Mauro contending in Pará—coupled with momentum from Flávio Bolsonaro's strong presidential showing in May Quaest and Apex surveys, where he ties or leads Lula in runoffs. MDB follows at 5.9% on centrist incumbency, while UNIÃO and PT lag amid fragmented opposition. Upcoming state-level primaries and conventions could shift dynamics in this closely watched renewal.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$253,885終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 74.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's 2026 Senate election for 54 seats on October 4, driven by the party's current status as the largest Senate bloc with recent adhesions boosting its numbers to 16 senators, alongside robust growth to 101 federal deputies following the party-switching window.** PL's edge stems from competitive candidates in key states per recent Quaest and other polls—like Michelle Bolsonaro leading in Distrito Federal and Éder Mauro contending in Pará—coupled with momentum from Flávio Bolsonaro's strong presidential showing in May Quaest and Apex surveys, where he ties or leads Lula in runoffs. MDB follows at 5.9% on centrist incumbency, while UNIÃO and PT lag amid fragmented opposition. Upcoming state-level primaries and conventions could shift dynamics in this closely watched renewal.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$253,885終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 74.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's 2026 Senate election for 54 seats on October 4, driven by the party's current status as the largest Senate bloc with recent adhesions boosting its numbers to 16 senators, alongside robust growth to 101 federal deputies following the party-switching window.** PL's edge stems from competitive candidates in key states per recent Quaest and other polls—like Michelle Bolsonaro leading in Distrito Federal and Éder Mauro contending in Pará—coupled with momentum from Flávio Bolsonaro's strong presidential showing in May Quaest and Apex surveys, where he ties or leads Lula in runoffs. MDB follows at 5.9% on centrist incumbency, while UNIÃO and PT lag amid fragmented opposition. Upcoming state-level primaries and conventions could shift dynamics in this closely watched renewal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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