Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first round because Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible to run, leaving his son as the primary right-wing candidate backed by the Liberal Party and consolidating support from evangelical voters and former Bolsonaro loyalists. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys show the race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio as statistically tied in runoff simulations and close in first-round projections, with Lula typically ahead but Flávio securing the next-highest share ahead of lower-polling contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. A late-May revelation linking Flávio to a banking scandal introduced short-term uncertainty, yet current market pricing reflects the view that right-wing fragmentation remains limited while Lula’s coalition holds a narrow first-round edge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 61%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 15%
レナン・サントス 6.3%
ロメウ・ゼマ 5.9%
$3,522,234 Vol.
$3,522,234 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
61%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
15%
レナン・サントス
6%
ロメウ・ゼマ
6%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
4%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
3%
カミロ・サンタナ
2%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
1%
ロナルド・カイアド
1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 61%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 15%
レナン・サントス 6.3%
ロメウ・ゼマ 5.9%
$3,522,234 Vol.
$3,522,234 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$56,378 Vol.
61%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
$67,153 Vol.
15%
レナン・サントス
$994,929 Vol.
6%
ロメウ・ゼマ
$256,353 Vol.
6%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$72,825 Vol.
4%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$651,213 Vol.
3%
カミロ・サンタナ
$56,008 Vol.
2%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
$2,848 Vol.
1%
ロナルド・カイアド
$289,157 Vol.
1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
$123,364 Vol.
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$111,040 Vol.
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
$642,631 Vol.
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
$29,825 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
$48,401 Vol.
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
$2,246 Vol.
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
$77,363 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
$40,500 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first round because Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible to run, leaving his son as the primary right-wing candidate backed by the Liberal Party and consolidating support from evangelical voters and former Bolsonaro loyalists. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys show the race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio as statistically tied in runoff simulations and close in first-round projections, with Lula typically ahead but Flávio securing the next-highest share ahead of lower-polling contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. A late-May revelation linking Flávio to a banking scandal introduced short-term uncertainty, yet current market pricing reflects the view that right-wing fragmentation remains limited while Lula’s coalition holds a narrow first-round edge.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$3,522,234終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first round because Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible to run, leaving his son as the primary right-wing candidate backed by the Liberal Party and consolidating support from evangelical voters and former Bolsonaro loyalists. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys show the race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio as statistically tied in runoff simulations and close in first-round projections, with Lula typically ahead but Flávio securing the next-highest share ahead of lower-polling contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. A late-May revelation linking Flávio to a banking scandal introduced short-term uncertainty, yet current market pricing reflects the view that right-wing fragmentation remains limited while Lula’s coalition holds a narrow first-round edge.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$3,522,234終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first round because Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible to run, leaving his son as the primary right-wing candidate backed by the Liberal Party and consolidating support from evangelical voters and former Bolsonaro loyalists. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys show the race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio as statistically tied in runoff simulations and close in first-round projections, with Lula typically ahead but Flávio securing the next-highest share ahead of lower-polling contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. A late-May revelation linking Flávio to a banking scandal introduced short-term uncertainty, yet current market pricing reflects the view that right-wing fragmentation remains limited while Lula’s coalition holds a narrow first-round edge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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