Recent polling shows a fragmented first-round field for Brazil's October 2026 presidential election, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro trading narrow leads around 40-46 percent while right-wing support splits among multiple contenders. This fragmentation sustains tight odds for third place between Romeu Zema and Renan Santos, as traders weigh Zema's established name recognition from his Minas Gerais governorship against Santos's mobilization through the Free Brazil Movement. Ronaldo Caiado's lower positioning reflects similar vote-division dynamics among PSD and NOVO bases. Upcoming endorsements from state governors or shifts in economic indicators could consolidate preferences and widen gaps ahead of the October 4 ballot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日レナン・サントス 32%
ロメウ・ゼマ 28%
ロナウド・カイアード 18%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ 4.5%
$282,748 Vol.
$282,748 Vol.

レナン・サントス
32%

ロメウ・ゼマ
34%

ロナウド・カイアード
18%

ミシェル・ボルソナロ
5%

フェルナンド・ハダジ
4%

フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
3%

カミロ・サンタナ
1%

ルイス・イナシオ・ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ
1%

ジェラウド・アルキミン
1%

エドゥアルド・レイチ
1%

ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
<1%

タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%

エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%

テレザ・クリスチナ
<1%

ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%

エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%

アルド・レベロ
<1%
レナン・サントス 32%
ロメウ・ゼマ 28%
ロナウド・カイアード 18%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ 4.5%
$282,748 Vol.
$282,748 Vol.

レナン・サントス
32%

ロメウ・ゼマ
34%

ロナウド・カイアード
18%

ミシェル・ボルソナロ
5%

フェルナンド・ハダジ
4%

フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
3%

カミロ・サンタナ
1%

ルイス・イナシオ・ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ
1%

ジェラウド・アルキミン
1%

エドゥアルド・レイチ
1%

ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
<1%

タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%

エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%

テレザ・クリスチナ
<1%

ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%

エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%

アルド・レベロ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling shows a fragmented first-round field for Brazil's October 2026 presidential election, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro trading narrow leads around 40-46 percent while right-wing support splits among multiple contenders. This fragmentation sustains tight odds for third place between Romeu Zema and Renan Santos, as traders weigh Zema's established name recognition from his Minas Gerais governorship against Santos's mobilization through the Free Brazil Movement. Ronaldo Caiado's lower positioning reflects similar vote-division dynamics among PSD and NOVO bases. Upcoming endorsements from state governors or shifts in economic indicators could consolidate preferences and widen gaps ahead of the October 4 ballot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問