Recent national polling from firms like AtlasIntel and Quaest shows President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro dominating first-round voting intentions, leaving a fragmented field where Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado each register low single-digit support. Trader consensus reflects this split in the center-right and libertarian blocs, with Zema’s Novo party base and Santos’s Mission Party momentum keeping their probabilities nearly even while Caiado’s PSD nomination in late March provides a narrower path. The October 4 first-round timeline and any governor endorsements or candidate withdrawals could consolidate the remaining vote share and widen the gap among these contenders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ロメウ・ゼマ 32%
レナン・サントス 31%
ロナウド・カイアード 19%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ 4.7%
$281,596 Vol.
$281,596 Vol.
2026/10/04
ロメウ・ゼマ
32%
レナン・サントス
31%
ロナウド・カイアード
19%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
5%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
4%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
3%
エルデル・バルバリョ
2%
カミロ・サンタナ
2%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
1%
テレザ・クリスチナ
1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
アルド・レベロ
<1%
ロメウ・ゼマ 32%
レナン・サントス 31%
ロナウド・カイアード 19%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ 4.7%
$281,596 Vol.
$281,596 Vol.
2026/10/04
ロメウ・ゼマ
$10,655 Vol.
32%
レナン・サントス
$63,226 Vol.
31%
ロナウド・カイアード
$16,728 Vol.
19%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$4,817 Vol.
5%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$14,354 Vol.
4%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$7,036 Vol.
3%
エルデル・バルバリョ
$132 Vol.
2%
カミロ・サンタナ
$6,116 Vol.
2%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ
$5,286 Vol.
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$4,328 Vol.
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
$4,092 Vol.
1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
$4,260 Vol.
1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
$2,559 Vol.
1%
テレザ・クリスチナ
$654 Vol.
1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
$39,622 Vol.
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
$93,195 Vol.
<1%
アルド・レベロ
$4,536 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polling from firms like AtlasIntel and Quaest shows President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro dominating first-round voting intentions, leaving a fragmented field where Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado each register low single-digit support. Trader consensus reflects this split in the center-right and libertarian blocs, with Zema’s Novo party base and Santos’s Mission Party momentum keeping their probabilities nearly even while Caiado’s PSD nomination in late March provides a narrower path. The October 4 first-round timeline and any governor endorsements or candidate withdrawals could consolidate the remaining vote share and widen the gap among these contenders.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
音量
$281,596終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polling from firms like AtlasIntel and Quaest shows President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro dominating first-round voting intentions, leaving a fragmented field where Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado each register low single-digit support. Trader consensus reflects this split in the center-right and libertarian blocs, with Zema’s Novo party base and Santos’s Mission Party momentum keeping their probabilities nearly even while Caiado’s PSD nomination in late March provides a narrower path. The October 4 first-round timeline and any governor endorsements or candidate withdrawals could consolidate the remaining vote share and widen the gap among these contenders.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$281,596終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent national polling from firms like AtlasIntel and Quaest shows President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro dominating first-round voting intentions, leaving a fragmented field where Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado each register low single-digit support. Trader consensus reflects this split in the center-right and libertarian blocs, with Zema’s Novo party base and Santos’s Mission Party momentum keeping their probabilities nearly even while Caiado’s PSD nomination in late March provides a narrower path. The October 4 first-round timeline and any governor endorsements or candidate withdrawals could consolidate the remaining vote share and widen the gap among these contenders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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