Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with trader consensus reflecting the impact of recent redistricting under Proposition 50 that added Stockton and shifted the seat toward a Democratic lean. Gray, who narrowly flipped the Central Valley district in 2024, advanced easily through the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic based on the updated map, Gray's incumbency advantages, and fundraising edge. The matchup remains the primary near-term variable, though the district's underlying partisan shift and historical performance under the new lines support the current implied probabilities for a Democratic hold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
90%
共和党
10%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$4,585 Vol.
90%
共和党
$4,107 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with trader consensus reflecting the impact of recent redistricting under Proposition 50 that added Stockton and shifted the seat toward a Democratic lean. Gray, who narrowly flipped the Central Valley district in 2024, advanced easily through the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic based on the updated map, Gray's incumbency advantages, and fundraising edge. The matchup remains the primary near-term variable, though the district's underlying partisan shift and historical performance under the new lines support the current implied probabilities for a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
音量
$8,692終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with trader consensus reflecting the impact of recent redistricting under Proposition 50 that added Stockton and shifted the seat toward a Democratic lean. Gray, who narrowly flipped the Central Valley district in 2024, advanced easily through the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic based on the updated map, Gray's incumbency advantages, and fundraising edge. The matchup remains the primary near-term variable, though the district's underlying partisan shift and historical performance under the new lines support the current implied probabilities for a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$8,692終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with trader consensus reflecting the impact of recent redistricting under Proposition 50 that added Stockton and shifted the seat toward a Democratic lean. Gray, who narrowly flipped the Central Valley district in 2024, advanced easily through the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic based on the updated map, Gray's incumbency advantages, and fundraising edge. The matchup remains the primary near-term variable, though the district's underlying partisan shift and historical performance under the new lines support the current implied probabilities for a Democratic hold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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